Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets : A Practitioner's Guide.

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- Introduction -- Acknowledgements -- Acronyms -- CHAPTER 1 EMFX and Fixed Income: Where the Opportunities Lie -- 1.1 EM Debt - Growing Too Fast to Ignore -- 1.2 Returns Too Attractive to Ignore -- 1.3 EM as an Alpha Opportunity -- 1.4 Scope for Even More Alpha -- 1.5 Summary -- CHAPTER 2 Global Macro Rules -- 2.1 What You Need to Get Right: 65% Global, 35% Local -- 2.2 When the US Sneezes, the World (Still) Catches a Cold -- 2.3 EM Central Banks Stimulate as Fast as Markets Allow -- 2.4 When Bullish on US Rates, EM Rates Outperform EM Credit -- 2.5 When Bullish on EUR, Overweight CEEMEA Over Asia -- 2.6 When Bullish on Commodities, Overweight Latam Over Asia -- 2.7 Risk Aversion Barely Hurts EM Rates -- 2.8 Rising US HY Spreads Worse than Rising VIX -- 2.9 Summary -- CHAPTER 3 China: The Only Emerging Market that Counts -- 3.1 Global Business Cycle Made in China -- 3.2 The Commodity Link -- 3.3 On Leverage -- 3.4 Current Account Surpluses No More -- 3.5 Enter the Capital Account -- 3.6 Reading the CNY Tea Leaves -- 3.7 CGBs: The JGBs for Millennials -- 3.8 The Grand Decoupling? -- 3.9 Summary -- CHAPTER 4 How to Trade EMFX -- 4.1 Only the JPY is Special -- 4.2 No Helping Hand from EM Rates -- 4.3 Carry Works - if You Are Japanese -- 4.4 Current Accounts: Measuring Risk the Old‐fashioned Way -- 4.5 Going for Growth -- 4.6 Modest Value in Valuation -- 4.7 Terms of Trade -- 4.8 Technicals to the Rescue -- 4.9 Flows Follow -- Don't Follow the Flows -- 4.10 Positioning with Positions -- 4.11 Going with the Seasons -- 4.12 Volatility: Foe, Not Friend -- 4.13 Summary -- CHAPTER 5 How to Trade EMFX: Event Guide -- 5.1 Chaining the FX Vigilantes -- 5.2 Intervention at Work -- 5.3 Emergency Rate Hikes - Only for Emergencies -- 5.4 Capital Controls, IMF, or … China.

5.5 IMF Packages Stabilize FX - Eventually -- 5.6 EM Elections: Of Market Foes and White Knights -- 5.7 Trading Data -- 5.8 Summary -- CHAPTER 6 How to Trade Emerging Market Rates: The Cycle -- 6.1 Emerging Markets: A Definition for Rates Traders -- 6.2 The Structural EM Trade is Dead -- Long Live the Cycle -- 6.3 US Lessons for EM Rates: Turning Points -- 6.4 US lessons for EM Rates: After the Turn -- 6.5 The Power of Patience: Receive Around the Last Hike Until the Last Cut is Close -- 6.6 More on Patience: Pay into the First Hike Until the Last Hike is Close -- 6.7 Steepeners: Receivers for Chickens -- 6.8 Flatteners: Payers for Chickens -- 6.9 How to Trade QE -- 6.10 It is Tough to be an EM Central Banker -- 6.11 EMFX as an Unpleasant Constraint on EM Central Bankers -- 6.12 Commodity Prices as an Unpleasant Constraint on EM Central Bankers -- 6.13 The Fed as an Unpleasant Constraint on EM Central Bankers -- 6.14 Inflation Forecasting in EM -- 6.15 Peaks in Inflation as the Holy Grail -- 6.16 EM Rates: Trading the Cycle in the Front -- 6.17 EM Rates: The Impact of US Treasuries -- 6.18 EM - Steeped in Risk -- 6.19 Does Valuation Work? -- 6.20 Term Premia: Use Sparingly -- 6.21 Sliding Down the Slope -- 6.22 Fiscal: Falling Flat -- 6.23 Summary -- CHAPTER 7 Real Rates: Simply Superior -- 7.1 Buy Linkers and Sleep Well -- 7.2 How to Sleep Even Better -- 7.3 What is Fair? -- 7.4 Or is it structural? -- 7.5 Summary -- CHAPTER 8 How to Trade EM Rates: Event Guide -- 8.1 Trading Data -- 8.2 Learn to Love Negative Carry -- 8.3 Being Inclusive Pays Off Nicely -- 8.4 Trading Domestic Disasters -- 8.5 Summary -- CHAPTER 9 How to Trade EM Credit -- 9.1 The Structural Trade is Dead: Long Live the Cycle -- 9.2 Carried Away by Momentum -- 9.3 Finding Your Sweet Spot -- 9.4 The Warren Buffett Trade in EM Credit -- 9.5 Improving on Buffett.

9.6 Credit Selection According to Ray Dalio -- 9.7 Pegs Make it Worse -- 9.8 IMF: What is it Good For? -- 9.9 Embrace Defaults -- 9.10 Of Credit Curves -- 9.11 Evaluating Value -- 9.12 Rating Agencies: Late, but Market Moving -- 9.13 External versus Local -- 9.14 Summary -- CHAPTER 10 Portfolio Construction -- 10.1 Smarter with Benchmarks -- 10.2 Frontier Markets at the Frontier -- 10.3 Portfolio Allocation without Markowitz -- 10.4 Derivatives: Weapons of Mass Alpha -- 10.5 ESG and EM: Not Fair! -- 10.6 Summary -- CHAPTER 11 The (Near) Future: Big Data, Machine Learning, and What if There Are No Emerging Markets Left -- 11.1 Big Data is Coming to Fixed Income -- 11.2 Machine Learning: Supervision is Needed for Supervised Learning -- 11.3 No Disappearing Act for Emerging Markets -- 11.4 Summary -- APPENDIX A Basic Concepts -- Bibliography -- EULA.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.