Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2014.

Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Assumptions and Conventions -- Country Groupings -- World Economic Outlook -- MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA, AFGHANISTAN, AND PAKISTAN -- MENAP Region Highlights -- (Omitted) -- Région MOANAP: Principaux Points -- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increasing Diversification, Reducing Reliance on Oil-Funded Spending -- Rising 2015 Growth Depends on Improving Security -- Oil Price Risks Remain Balanced, but Geopolitical Risks Have Risen -- Falling Oil Revenues and Rising Government Spending Are Weakening Fiscal Positions -- Growth from Diversification, Not Rising Oil Prices -- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Slow Recovery and Modest Prospects Call for Reform -- Fragile Confidence Constrains Recovery -- Downside Risks Are Elevated -- Gradually Declining External and Fiscal Vulnerabilities -- Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Policies: Going Beyond Macroeconomic Stability -- Lackluster Medium-Term Prospects -- Structural Transformation to Boost Growth -- International Support -- CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA -- CCA Region Highlights -- Основные положения по региону КЦА -- 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Increased Risks Highlight Need for Reform -- Russia's Slowdown Is Weighing on CCA Economic Activity -- Risks Are Largely to the Downside -- Inflation Pressures Call for Effective Monetary Policy Frameworks -- External and Fiscal Positions Are Vulnerable -- Stronger Financial Systems Are Needed to Support Growth -- Time for a New Economic Model -- Annex I. Medium-Term Economic Prospects in the MENAP and CCA Regions -- Potential Growth Is Slowing Faster Than in Other Regions -- Reasons behind Declines in Potential Growth Vary -- Policies to Raise Potential Growth -- Annex II. Public Infrastructure Investment in the MENAP and CCA Regions -- Infrastructure Gaps -- Jobs and Growth Implications of Higher Public Investment.

Investment Efficiency -- Policy Implications -- Annex III. Access to Finance for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the MENAP and CCA Regions -- SMEs, Inclusive Growth, and Access to Finance -- Factors Constraining SME Access to Finance -- Impact of Global Regulatory Initiatives -- Recent Reforms -- Islamic Finance -- Policy Recommendations -- Annex IV. Measuring Inclusiveness in the MENAP and CCA Regions -- Mixed Performance on Poverty, Inequality, and Middle Class Size -- Low Growth and Access to Services in MENAP Oil Importers -- Lack of Employment Is a Key Inclusiveness Problem -- Acute Gender Inequality in MENAP -- Toward Better Outcomes -- Annex V. Economic Cooperation and Integration in the CCA -- Rationale for Economic Cooperation and Integration in the CCA -- Status of Economic Cooperation and Integration in the CCA -- Several Factors Explain the Slow Pace of Regional Integration -- Prospects -- Policy Implications -- Statistical Appendix -- References -- Boxes -- 1.1 Economic Implications of the Iraq Conflict -- 1.2 Capital Flows to GCC Countries -- 2.1 Better Protection for the Poor in MENA -- 2.2 Impact of Fiscal Measures on Jobs in MENAP Oil-Importing Economies -- 2.3 Shifting Patterns in Official External Financing in MENAP Oil Importers -- 3.1 Growth Shocks in Russia: Implications for the CCA -- 3.2 Reducing Financial Dollarization in the CCA -- Figures -- 1.1 Growth to Rise on Delayed Non-GCC Recovery -- 1.2 Faster Growth Has Not Prompted Higher Inflation -- 1.3 MENAP Oil Exporters: Real Effective Exchange Rates -- 1.4 Oil Price Uncertainties Increase Vulnerabilities -- 1.5 Wages and Capital Raise GCC Government Spending -- 1.6 Fiscal Positions Are Weakening -- 1.7 High Oil Prices Will Not Save Fiscal Positions -- 1.8 Nonhydrocarbon Deficits Are Too High for Intergenerational Equity in Most Countries.

1.9 Oil and Gas Consumption Are Growing -- 1.10 Current Account Balances Are Falling -- 1.11 GDP Growth Relies on Rising Oil Prices -- 1.12 Signs That Labor Market Reforms Are Bearing Fruit? -- 1.13 Public Sector Wage Bills Are High -- 2.1 Consumption and Investment Drive Contributions to Real GDP Growth -- 2.2 Exports of Goods and Foreign Direct Investment -- 2.3 Risk Premiums Are Declining -- 2.4 Real Exchange Rate in MENAP Oil Importers -- 2.5 Growth Insufficient to Improve Living Standards -- 2.6 Inflation Pressures Persist -- 2.7 Fiscal Deficit and Reserves -- 2.8 Change in Revenue and Expenditure -- 2.9 Fiscal Financing Needs -- 2.10 External Financing Needs -- 2.11 Raising Medium-Term Growth and Job Prospects Requires Structural Reforms -- 3.1 Real GDP Growth -- 3.2 CCA: Real GDP Growth -- 3.3 Growth Revisions versus Policy Buffers -- 3.4 Linkages with Russia -- 3.5 Mixed Progress in Structural Reforms -- 3.6 Inflation versus Nominal Exchange Rate Depreciation -- 3.7 Current Account Balances -- 3.8 Real Exchange Rate versus Current Account Balance -- 3.9 Fiscal Balances -- 3.10 Fiscal Transparency Index -- 3.11 Pretax Energy Subsidies and Spending on Health and Education -- 3.12 Credit to GDP versus Trend -- 3.13 CCA versus Emerging Markets: Voice and Accountability -- 3.14 Sustainable Growth Requires Bold Structural Reforms -- 3.15 Control of Corruption -- 3.16 CCA: Growth, Inequality, and Employment -- 3.17 CCA versus Emerging Markets: Economic Complexity -- A1.1 Non-Oil Potential GDP Growth -- A1.2 Composition of Recent Non-Oil Potential Growth Slowdown -- A1.3 Drivers of Differences in Non-Oil Potential Growth with Emerging Market and Developing Countries -- A1.4 Contributions to Non-Oil Potential Growth -- A1.5 Medium-Term Growth above Baseline If Underlying Structural Variables Reach Emerging Market and Developing Country Levels.

A2.1 Public Capital Spending -- A2.2 Infrastructure Quality and GDP per Capita -- A2.3 Public Investment and Physical Infrastructure Needs, 2014-19 -- A2.4 Impact of Higher Public Investment on Real GDP Growth -- A2.5 Public Investment Management Index, by Region -- A2.6 Financing for Infrastructure and Other Investments -- A3.1 Access to Finance: An Overview -- A3.2 Indices for Legal Rights and Credit Information -- A4.1 Population Living on 4 or Less, 2000-10 -- A4.2 Land Gini Index -- A4.3 GDP per Capita -- A4.4 GDP per Capita Growth -- A4.5 Population Living in Multidimensional Poverty -- A4.6 Educational Attainment -- A4.7 Access to Bank Services -- A4.8 Employment-to-Population Ratio -- A4.9 Unemployment Rate -- A4.10 Youth Unemployment Rate -- A4.11 Labor Force Participation Rate -- A4.12 Female-to-Male Labor Force Participation -- A4.13 Global Gender Gap Index, 2006-13 -- A4.14 Rural-to-Urban Access to Improved Water Source -- A4.15 Rural-to-Urban Access to Improved Sanitation -- A5.1 Intraregional Trade -- A5.2 CCA's Share in the Global Economy -- A5.3 CCA: Trade Composition Change Between 2000 and 2013 -- A5.4 Selected CCA: Export Composition -- A5.5 Selected CCA: Export Share to Top Three Trading Partners -- Tables -- 2.1 Spending on Energy Subsidies -- 3.1 Exchange Rate and Monetary Frameworks -- A3.1 Reforms and Institutional Arrangements to Enhance SME Access to Finance -- A4.1 Measures of Inequality -- A4.2 Size of the Middle Class Using Alternative Definitions -- A5.1 CCA: Trade Shift from Russia to China -- A5.2 Intraregional Trade Costs.

This issue discusses economic developments in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP), which continue to reflect the diversity of conditions prevailing across the region. Most high-income oil exporters, primarily in the GCC, continue to record steady growth and solid economic and financial fundamentals, albeit with medium-term challenges that need to be addressed. In contrast, other countries-Iraq, Libya, and Syria-are mired in conflicts with not only humanitarian but also economic consequences. And yet other countries, mostly oil importers, are making continued but uneven progress in advancing their economic agendas, often in tandem with political transitions and amidst difficult social conditions. In most of these countries, without extensive economic and structural reforms, economic prospects for the medium term remain insufficient to reduce high unemployment and improve living standards.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.