Analytics Stories : Using Data to Make Good Things Happen.

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- About the Author -- About the Technical Editor -- Acknowledgments -- Contents at a Glance -- Contents -- Introduction -- Part I What Happened? -- Chapter 1 Preliminaries -- Basic Concepts in Data Analysis -- What Is a Random Variable? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 2 Was the 1969 Draft Lottery Fair? -- The Data -- The Analysis -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 3 Who Won the 2000 Election: Bush or Gore? -- Projecting the Undervotes -- What Happened with the Overvotes? -- The Butterfly Did It! -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 4 Was Liverpool Over Barcelona the Greatest Upset in  Sports History? -- How Should We Rank Upsets? -- Leicester Wins the 2015-2016 Premier League -- #16 Seed UMBC Beats #1 Seed Virginia -- The Jets Win Super Bowl III -- Other Big Upsets -- Chapter 5 How Did Bernie Madoff Keep His Fund Going? -- The Mathematics of Ponzi Schemes -- Madoff's Purported Strategy -- The Sharpe Ratio Proves Madoff Was a Fraud -- Benford's Law and Madoff's Fraud -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 6 Is the Lot of the American Worker Improving? -- Is U.S. Family Income Skewed? -- Median Income and Politics -- Causes of Increasing U.S. Income Inequality -- Money Isn't Everything: The Human Development Index -- Create Your Own Ranking of Well-Being -- Are Other Countries Catching Up to the U.S.? -- Chapter 7 Measuring Income Inequality with the Gini, Palm,  and Atkinson Indices -- The Gini Index -- The Palma Index -- The Atkinson Index -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 8 Modeling Relationships Between Two Variables -- Examples of Relationships Between Two Variables -- Finding the Best-Fitting (Least Squares) Line -- Computing the Beta of a Stock -- What Is a Good R2? -- Correlation and R2 -- We Are Not Living in a Linear World -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 9 Intergenerational Mobility.

Absolute Intergenerational Mobility -- Intergenerational Elasticity -- Rank-Rank Mobility -- Comparing IGE and Rank-Rank Mobility -- Measuring Mobility with Quintiles -- The Great Gatsby Curve -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 10 Is Anderson Elementary School a Bad School? -- How Can We Adjust for Family Income? -- Estimating the Least Squares Line -- Can We Compare Standardized Test Performance for Students in Different States? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 11 Value-Added Assessments of Teacher Effectiveness -- Simple Gain Score Assessment -- Covariate Adjustment Assessment -- Layered Assessment Model -- Cross-Classified Constant Growth Assessment -- Problems with VAA -- How Much Is a Good Teacher Worth? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 12 Berkeley, Buses, Cars, and Planes -- Simpson's Paradox and College Admissions -- The Waiting Time Paradox -- When Is the Average of 40 and 80 Not 60? -- Why Pre COVID Were There Never Empty Seats on My Flight? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 13 Is Carmelo Anthony a Hall of Famer? -- What Metric Defines Basketball Ability? -- Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) -- Manu, Melo, Dirk, and Dwayne -- How Do 25,000 Points Lead to So Few Wins? -- Chapter 14 Was Derek Jeter a Great Fielder? -- Fielding Statistics: The First Hundred Years -- Range Factor -- The Fielding Bible: A Great Leap Forward -- The Next Frontier -- Chapter 15 "Drive for Show and Putt for Dough?" -- Strokes Gained -- The Myth Exposed -- Chapter 16 What's Wrong with the NFL QB Rating? -- NFL Quarterback Rating -- ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 17 Some Sports Have All the Luck -- Skill vs. Luck: The Key Idea -- The Results -- Chapter 18 Gerrymandering -- A Stylized Example -- The Mathematics of Gerrymandering -- Chapter 19 Evidence-Based Medicine -- James Lind and Scurvy: The Birth of  Evidence-Based Medicine.

The Randomized Streptomycin Tuberculosis Trial -- Excel Calculations -- Hormone Replacement: Good or Bad? -- Chapter 20 How Do We Compare Hospitals? -- Ratings Criteria -- Conclusion -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 21 What Is the Worst Health Care Problem in My Country? -- Disability-Adjusted Life Years -- Determination of Disability Weights -- To Age Weight or Discount, That Is the Question -- Key Facts About World Health -- Part II What Will Happen? -- Chapter 22 Does a Mutual Fund's Past Performance Predict Future Performance? -- Mutual Fund Basics -- Morningstar Ratings -- Risk-Adjusting Fund Returns -- How Well Do Morningstar Star Ratings Predict a Fund's Future Performance? -- The Effect of Expense Ratio on Long-Term Performance -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 23 Is Vegas Good at Picking NFL Games? -- How NFL Betting Works -- Bias and Accuracy -- Vegas Forecasts Are Unbiased -- Totals Predictions and Money Line Predictions Are Unbiased -- NFL Accuracy: The Line vs. the Computers -- A System Works Until It Doesn't -- Chapter 24 Will My New Hires Be Good Employees? -- What Data Do We Need to Determine Attributes That Best Predict Employee Performance? -- Besides GMA, Not Much Affects Job Performance -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 25 Should I Go to State U or Princeton? -- Analyzing Princeton vs. Penn State -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 26 Will My Favorite Sports Team Be Great Next Year? -- Francis Galton and Regression to the Mean -- Regression to the Mean in the NFL and the NBA -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 27 How Did Central Bankers Fail to Predict the  2008 Recession? -- The Inverted Yield Curve -- The Sahm Rule: Early Warning Signal for Recession -- Control Charts and the Housing Price/Rent Ratio -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 28 How Does Target Know If You're Pregnant?.

What Available Data Can Be Used to Identify Pregnant Women? -- Problems Arise -- An Example of a Pregnancy Prediction Score -- Chapter 29 How Does Netflix Recommend Movies and TV Shows? -- User-Based Collaborative Filtering -- Item-Based Filtering -- Chapter 30 Can We Predict Heart Attacks in Real Time? -- Posterior Probability -- Sensitivity and Specificity -- ROC Curve -- Back to the Apple Heart Study -- AliveCor and KardiaBand -- Chapter 31 Is Proactive Policing Effective? -- Hot Spots Policing -- Predictive Policing -- CCTV -- Stop and Frisk -- Broken Windows -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 32 Guess How Many Are Coming to Dinner? -- Which Parameters Must Be Estimated? -- The Data -- The Results -- Which Factor Really Matters? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 33 Can Prediction Markets Predict the Future? -- Examples of Trade Contracts -- Prediction Market Trading Mechanisms -- Accuracy of Prediction Markets and Wisdom of Crowds -- Chapter 34 The ABCs of Polling -- Why Are 1,112 People Enough to Represent U.S. Voters? -- Why Doesn't a Larger Population Require a  Larger Sample Size? -- So, What Can Go Wrong? -- Rating Polls -- Chapter 35 How Did Buzzfeed Make the Dress Go Viral? -- Measuring Instagram Engagement -- Tweets Do Not Always Go Viral Immediately -- Do the First Few Days Predict the Future of a Meme? -- Chapter 36 Predicting Game of Thrones TV Ratings -- What Does Google Trends Tell Us? -- Predicting the Present with Google Trends -- Using Google Trends to Forecast GOT Ratings -- Excel Calculations -- Part III Why Did It Happened? -- Chapter 37 Does Smoking Cause Lung Cancer? -- Correlation and Causation Redux -- The Key Evidence -- Could Air Pollution Have Caused Lung Cancer? -- The Cigarette Companies Hit Back -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 38 Why Are the Houston Rockets a Good Basketball Team? -- NBA Shooting Math 101.

Zach LaVine Battles the Bulls' Analytics Department -- Conclusion -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 39 Why Have Sacrifice Bunts and Intentional Walks Nearly Disappeared? -- The Case Against Bunting -- Bunting Against the Shift -- Why Are Intentional Walks on the Decline? -- Chapter 40 Do NFL Teams Pass Too Much and Go for It Often Enough on Fourth Down? -- The Ascent of Passing -- Fourth Down Strategy -- New Data Partially Vindicates the Coaches -- Teams Should Go for Two More Often -- Chapter 41 What Caused the 1854 London Cholera Outbreak? -- Cholera -- Snow and the Broad Street Pump -- Snow's Randomized Controlled Trial -- Conclusion -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 42 What Affects the Sales of a Retail Product? -- Painter's Tape -- Estimating the Model Parameters -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 43 Why Does the Pareto Principle Explain So Many Things? -- Power Laws -- Why Do Incomes Follow the Pareto Principle? -- Why Do a Few Websites Get Most of the Hits? -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 44 Does Where You Grow Up Matter? -- Quasi-Experimental Design vs. Randomized Controlled Trials -- What Drives Neighborhood Differences in  Upward Mobility? -- How Can We Make Things Better? -- Chapter 45 The Waiting is the Hardest Part -- Which Factors Influence the Performance of a  Queueing System? -- Operating Characteristics of a Queueing System -- How Does Variability Degrade the Performance of a Queueing System? -- Calculating the Operating Characteristics of a  Queueing System -- Excel Calculations -- Chapter 46 Are Roundabouts a Good Idea? -- What Is a Roundabout? -- History of Roundabouts -- Benefits of Roundabouts -- Disadvantages of Roundabouts -- Roundabout Capacity -- Roundabouts and Revolutions -- Chapter 47 Red Light, Green Light, or No Light? -- What Causes Traffic Jams? -- How Should We Set the Lights? -- Ramp Meters and Equity.

Measuring the Impact of Ramp Meters.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.