Forecasting and Management of Technology.

Cover -- Titlepage -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 About This Book -- 1.2 Technology and Society -- 1.2.1 Social Change -- 1.2.2 Technological Change -- 1.3 Management and the Future -- 1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes -- 1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting -- 1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting -- 1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting -- 1.4 Conclusions -- References -- 2 Technology Forecasting -- 2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting? -- 2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion -- 2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context -- 2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good? -- 2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology -- 2.2 Methodological Foundations -- 2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System -- 2.2.2 Inquiring Systems -- 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods -- 2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods -- 2.3.2 Method Selection -- 2.4 Conclusion -- References -- 3 Managing the Forecasting Project -- 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project -- 3.1.1 The Technology Manager's Needs -- 3.1.2 The Forecast Manager's Needs -- 3.1.3 Information about Team Members -- 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast -- 3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications -- 3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast -- 3.3.2 Communications -- 3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization -- 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time -- 3.5 Project Scheduling -- 3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) -- 3.5.2 Gantt Chart -- 3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC) -- 3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software -- 3.6 Conclusions -- References -- 4 Exploring -- 4.1 Establishing the Context-the TDS -- 4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts -- 4.1.2 Technology Context -- 4.1.3 Stakeholders -- 4.1.4 Understanding the TDS.

4.1.5 An Example TDS Model -- 4.2 Monitoring -- 4.2.1 Why Monitor? -- 4.2.2 Who Should Monitor? -- 4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy -- 4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues -- 4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development -- 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity -- 4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity -- 4.3.2 Group Creativity -- 4.4 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Gathering and Using Information -- 5.1 Expert Opinion -- 5.1.1 Selecting Experts -- 5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques -- 5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet -- 5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet -- 5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet -- 5.3 Structuring the Search -- 5.4 Preparing Search Results -- 5.5 Using Search Results -- 5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators -- 5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators -- 5.6.2 Social Indicators -- 5.7 Communicating Search Results -- 5.8 Conclusions -- References -- 6 Analyzing Phase -- 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods -- 6.1.1 Overview and Caveats -- 6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends -- 6.1.3 Analytical Modeling -- 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions -- 6.3 Growth Models -- 6.3.1 The Models -- 6.3.2 Dealing with the Data -- 6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong? -- 6.4 Simulation -- 6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis -- 6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis -- 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation -- 6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values -- 6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables -- 6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision -- 6.6 System Dynamics -- 6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle -- 6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model -- 6.7 Gaming -- 6.7.1 Decision Trees -- 6.7.2 Bayesian Estimation -- 6.7.3 Value of Information -- 6.7.4 Real Options Analysis -- 6.8 Software Suggestions.

6.8.1 Software for Regression -- 6.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software -- 6.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions -- 6.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software -- 6.8.5 Software Sites -- References -- 7 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis -- 7.1 Uncertainty -- 7.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks -- 7.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty -- 7.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm -- 7.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty -- 7.2 Scenarios -- 7.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios -- 7.2.2 Types of Scenarios -- 7.3 Examples and Applications -- 7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning -- 7.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios -- 7.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change -- 7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques -- 7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts -- 7.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis -- 7.5 Conclusions -- References -- 8 Economic and Market Analysis -- 8.1 The Context -- 8.1.1 Markets and Innovation -- 8.1.2 Technology and Institutions -- 8.2 Forecasting the Market -- 8.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace -- 8.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential -- 8.2.3 A Quantitative Approach-Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models -- 8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context -- 8.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting -- 8.3.2 Input-Output Analysis -- 8.3.3 General Equilibrium Models -- 8.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics -- 8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context -- 8.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market -- 8.4.2 Game Theory -- 8.4.3 Agent-Based Models -- 8.5 Conclusion -- References -- 9 Impact Assessment -- 9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting -- 9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology -- 9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment -- 9.4 Impact Identification -- 9.4.1 Scanning Techniques -- 9.4.2 Tracing Techniques -- 9.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects -- 9.4.4 A Final Word.

9.5 Impact Analysis -- 9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology -- 9.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts -- 9.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts -- 9.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts -- 9.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts -- 9.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts -- 9.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts -- 9.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts -- 9.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts -- 9.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts -- 9.6 Impact Evaluation -- 9.7 Conclusion -- References -- 10 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis -- 10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices -- 10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis -- 10.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization -- 10.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response -- 10.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods -- 10.2.4 Economic Value Added -- 10.2.5 Earned Value Management -- 10.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard -- 10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty -- 10.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations -- 10.3.2 Accounting for Risk-the Social Dimension -- 10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase -- References -- 11 Implementing the Technology -- 11.1 Forecasting Continues -- 11.2 Implementation Issues -- 11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation -- 11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology -- 11.4.1 Measurement -- 11.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling -- 11.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process -- 11.4.4 Wrap-Up -- 11.5 Technology Roadmapping -- 11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations -- References -- 12 Managing the Present from the Future -- 12.1 The Overall Approach -- 12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques -- 12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques -- 12.2.2 The 80-20 Rule -- 12.3 Alternative Perspectives -- 12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments -- 12.5 Visions -- 12.6 A Final Word -- References.

Appendix A Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells -- A.1 Framing the Case Study -- A.1.1 Characterizing the Technology -- A.1.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells -- A.2 Methods -- A.2.1 Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping -- A.2.2 Developing the TDS -- A.2.3 Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping -- A.2.4 Trend Analyses -- A.2.5 Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses -- A.3 The Rest of the Story -- A.3.1 Market Forecasts -- A.3.2 Scenarios -- A.3.3 Technology Assessment -- A.3.4 Further Analyses and Communicating Results -- References -- Index -- EULA.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.