Exploring a Low-Carbon Development Path for Vietnam.

Front Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- Executive Summary -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 The Case for Low-Carbon Development -- Overview -- Vietnam's Economic and Emissions Performance -- Business as Usual versus Low-Carbon Development -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario -- Overview -- Introduction -- Methodology: The BAU and LCD Scenarios -- The Business-as-Usual Scenario -- The Low-Carbon Development Scenario -- Toward Low-Carbon Development -- Achieving Green Growth Targets -- The Economics of Low-Carbon Development -- Key Recommendations -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 3 Energy Efficiency in Industrial and Household Sectors -- Overview -- Introduction -- Energy Efficiency and Financial Competitiveness -- Energy Efficiency at the Household Level -- Energy Efficiency: An Implementation Gap Assessment -- Key Recommendations -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 4 Decarbonizing the Power Sector -- Overview -- Displacing CO2-Emitting Coal-Fueled Power Plants to Achieve Low-Carbon Development -- Low-Carbon Development and Energy Security -- Key Recommendations -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 5 Sustainable Transportation and Urban Planning -- Overview -- Low-Carbon Development in the Transport Sector -- Integrated Land-Use Planning -- Note -- Bibliography -- Chapter 6 Macroeconomic and Electricity Pricing Implications -- Overview -- Introduction -- Macroeconomic Implications -- Electricity Pricing Implications -- Mitigating Adverse Impacts -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 7 Policy and Institutional Measures -- Introduction -- Area 1: Energy Price Reform -- Area 2: Increasing the Energy Efficiency of Households and Industry -- Area 3: Promotion of Gas in the Power Sector -- Area 4: Use of Supercritical Coal Combustion Technology -- Area 5: Renewable Energy -- Area 6: Sustainable Transport.

Area 7: Cross-Cutting Reforms to Promote LCD -- Note -- Bibliography -- Appendix A EFFECT Model -- Appendix B Marginal Abatement Costs -- Appendix C Electricity Revenue Requirements Model -- Appendix D Computable General Equilibrium Model -- Appendix E Key Assumptions -- Appendix F Data Tables -- Appendix G Electricity Generation Capital and Fuel Expenditures by Scenario -- Figures -- Figure ES.1 CO2 Emissions Reductions Proposed, Relative to Business as Usual -- Figure 1.1 Vietnam's Annual GDP Growth, 2000-12 -- Figure 1.2 Changes in Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Select Nations and Regions, 2000-10 -- Figure 1.3 Vietnam's Change in CO2 Emissions per GDP Compared with Select Nations and Regions, 2000-10 -- Figure 1.4 Carbon Dioxide Emissions under the Business-as-Usual Scenario -- Figure 1.5 Share of Increase in CO2 Emissions under BAU Scenario, 2010-30 -- Figure 2.1 CO2 Emissions: Business as Usual vs. Low-Carbon Strategy, 2010-30 -- Figure 2.2 Share of Cumulative Emissions Reductions: LCD Scenario, 2010-30 -- Figure 2.3 Emissions Reductions under LCD Scenario, 2010-30, Relative to BAU -- Figure 2.4 Emissions Intensity and Emissions per Capita, 2010-30, BAU vs. LCD Scenarios -- Figure 2.5 Vietnam's Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, 2010-30 -- Figure 3.1 Reduced Electricity Generation Capacity Additions: EE10 vs. Business as Usual -- Figure 3.2 Electric Demand Reductions at the Consumer Level -- Figure 3.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Industrial Sector Energy Saving (Electricity and Fossil Fuels) -- Figure 3.4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Industrial Sector Electric and Energy Savings Options -- Figure 3.5 Iron and Steel Producers: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves -- Figure 3.6 Small Steel Producers: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves -- Figure 3.7 Cement Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves.

Figure 3.8 Household Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves -- Figure 3.9 Framework of a Typically Successful Energy Efficiency Program -- Figure 4.1 Electricity Generation Capacity Added Net of Energy Efficiency Gains -- Figure 4.2 Peaking Share of Total Installed Capacity, by Scenario, 2010-30, MW -- Figure 4.3 Marginal Abatement Costs for Subcritical Coal Displacement by Online Year -- Figure 4.4 Marginal Abatement Costs for Supercritical Coal Displacement by Online Year -- Figure 4.5 Marginal Abatement Costs for Supercritical Coal Displacement, with Externalities by Online Year -- Figure 4.6 Coal Capacity Displaced in LCD and EE10 Scenarios, by Type, 2021-30 -- Figure 4.7 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for the Power Sector -- Figure 4.8 Cumulative Emissions Reductions from Power Supply Low-Carbon Options -- Figure 4.9 Fuel Import Dependence Changes from Low-Carbon Development -- Figure 4.10 Total Power Plants Investments, by Scenario, 2015-30 -- Figure 5.1 Transport: The BAU vs. LCD Scenarios, 2010-30 -- Figure 5.2 Transport Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves -- Figure 6.1 Vietnam's Economic Growth under the BAU and LCD Scenarios, 2012-30 -- Figure 6.2 Inflation under the BAU and LCD Scenarios, 2011-30 -- Figure 6.3 Difference in the Rate of Increase in Household Consumption over 2014-30 between the LCD and BAU Scenarios, by Income Quintile -- Figure 6.4 Unit Electricity Costs, 2014-30 -- Figure C.1 Overview of the Revenue Requirements Model -- Figure D.1 Energy Substitution in Production Functions -- Figure D.2 Production Technology and Commodity Flows in Vietnam: Low-Carbon CGE Model -- Figure E.1 Annual Growth of GDP, % per Year, and Total GDP, 2010 VND Trillion per Year -- Figure E.2 Total Population, Million Persons, and Urbanization Rate, Percent per Year -- Figure E.3 Number of Households and Household Size -- Tables.

Table ES.1 Summary of Policy Recommendations -- Table 2.1 Comparisons across Vietnam's Recent Low-Carbon Studies -- Table 2.2 Installed Capacity Mix in BAU, LCD, and PDPVII Base, 2020 and 2030 -- Table 2.3 Total Investment in the BAU and LCD Scenarios, 2010-30 -- Table 3.1 Grid Electricity Reductions Due to Increased Energy Efficiency -- Table 3.2 Summary of Select Industrial Marginal Abatement Costs that Affect Electricity Demand -- Table 4.1 Electricity Generation Capacity Added Net of Energy Efficiency Gains, MW and % -- Table 4.2 Incremental Capacity Additions and Generation, the LCD Scenario -- Table 4.3 Summary of New Power Plants' Main Parameters -- Table 4.4 Total Capacity Additions and Coal Displacement in LCD Scenario, 2021-30 (MW) -- Table 4.5 Power Supply Emissions Reductions and Composite Marginal Abatement Costs: LCD Scenario, 2021-30 -- Table 4.6 Electricity Generation Capacity Additions, by Scenario, MW -- Table 5.1 Summary of Transport Measures Incorporated in the BAU and LCD Scenarios -- Table B.1 Summary of Marginal Abatement Costs in the Study -- Table B.2 Iron and Steel: Abatement Options -- Table B.3 Small Steel Sector: Abatement Options -- Table B.4 Cement Sector Marginal Abatement Costs Assumptions -- Table B.5 Fertilizer Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Assumptions -- Table B.6 Refinery Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Assumptions -- Table B.7 Pulp and Paper: Marginal Abatement Cost Assumptions -- Table B.8 Residential/Household Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Assumptions -- Table B.9 Power Sector: Marginal Abatement Cost Assumptions -- Table C.1 Breakdown of Utility Revenue Requirements under the BAU Scenario, Million 2010 -- Table C.2 Breakdown of Utility Revenue Requirement under the LCD Scenario, Million 2010 -- Table E.1 Fuel Prices -- Table E.2 Income Elasticity of Electricity Demand.

Table E.3 Lifetime Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation -- Table F.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario -- Table F.2 Low-Carbon Development Scenario -- Table G.1 Electricity Generation Capital Expenditures by Scenario -- Table G.2 Electricity Generation Fuel Expenditures by Scenario.

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