Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements.

Cover -- Contents -- List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Preface -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: The Menu for Choice -- Variety of Methods -- Impacts of What and Impacts on What -- Structure of the Book -- References (Introduction) -- Chapter 1 Theoretical Framework for Economic Analysis of Free Trade Agreements -- 1.1. Viner's Model and Extensions -- 1.1.1. Viner's Model -- 1.1.2. Extensions to Viner's Model -- 1.2. General Equilibrium Models -- 1.2.1. Meade-Lipsey and Wonnacott-Wonnacott Models -- 1.2.2. Lloyd-Maclaren Model -- 1.2.3. Kemp-Wan Theorem -- 1.3. Dynamic Effects of Free Trade Agreements -- 1.3.1. Economies of Scale and Variety -- 1.3.2. Impacts on Foreign Direct Investment -- 1.3.3. Structural Policy Change and Reform -- 1.3.4. Competitiveness and Long-Run Growth Effects -- 1.4. Theoretical Foundations for Computable General Equilibrium and Gravity Model -- 1.4.1. Foundations for Computable General Equilibrium Analysis -- 1.4.2. Foundations for the Gravity Model -- 1.5. Concluding Remarks -- References (Chapter 1) -- Chapter 2 Methods for Ex-Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements -- 2.1. Trade Indicators to Evaluate the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement -- 2.1.1. Indicators of Regional Trade Interdependence -- 2.1.2. Indicators of Comparative Advantage, Regional Orientation, Trade Complementarity, and Export Similarity -- 2.1.3. Strengths and Limitations of Trade Indicators -- 2.2. Estimating the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement in an Individual Market -- 2.2.1. The SMART Model -- 2.2.2. Example of Motorcycle Market in the Lao People's Democratic Republic -- 2.2.3. Strengths and Limitations of the SMART Model -- 2.3. Computable General Equilibrium Estimation of the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement -- 2.3.1. The GTAP Model.

2.3.2. Example of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of a Free Trade Agreement: GTAP Simulation of the Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Area on Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam -- 2.3.3. Strengths and Limitations of the GTAP Model -- 2.4. Concluding Remarks -- References (Chapter 2) -- Appendix 2.1: Sources of Input-Output Tables in GTAP 7 Data Base -- Appendix 2.2: Composite Regions and Correspondence with Primary Regions in GTAP 7 Data Base -- Chapter 3 Methods for Ex-Post Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements -- 3.1. Free Trade Agreement Preference Indicators -- 3.1.1. Coverage Rate -- 3.1.2. Utility Rate -- 3.1.3. Utilization Rate -- 3.1.4. Value of Free Trade Agreement Preferences -- 3.1.5. Data Sources: Customs Data and Firm Surveys -- 3.1.6. Strengths and Limitations of Free Trade Agreement Preference Indicators -- 3.2. Free Trade Agreement Trade and Welfare Indicators -- 3.2.1. Qualitative Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion -- 3.2.2. Quantitative Indicators of Trade and Welfare Effects -- 3.2.3. Strengths and Limitations of Free Trade Agreement Trade and Welfare Indicators -- 3.3. The Gravity Model -- 3.3.1. Gravity Model Data -- 3.3.2. Interpretation of Gravity Model Results -- 3.3.3. Strengths and Limitations of the Gravity Model -- 3.4. Concluding Remarks -- References (Chapter 3) -- Appendix 3: Association of Southeast Asian Nations Free Trade Area's Form D-Certificate of Origin -- Chapter 4 Special Considerations for Developing Countries -- 4.1. "Lock-In" of Structural Reform and Policy Adjustment -- 4.2. Technology Transfer and Foreign Direct Investment -- 4.3. Human and Institutional Capacity Building -- 4.4. Macroeconomic Stability Considerations -- 4.5. Strategic Considerations -- 4.6. Concluding Remarks -- References (Chapter 4) -- About the Authors -- Tables.

Table 1.1 Summary of Free Trade Agreement Effects Generated by Computable General Equilibrium Models -- Table 1.2 Summary of Free Trade Agreement Effects Generated by Gravity Models -- Table 2.1 Exports into the Lao People's Democratic Republic's Motorcycle Market -- Table 2.2 The SMART Model, Free Trade Agreement Analysis, and Developing Countries -- Table 2.3 Aggregation of GTAP Sectors -- Table 2.4 ASEAN Ad Valorem Import Tariffs, 2004 -- Table 2.5 Simulated Aggregate Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on Gross Domestic Product and Trade -- Table 2.6 Simulated Sectoral Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on Cambodia -- Table 2.7 Simulated Sectoral Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement on Viet Nam -- Table 2.8 Simulated Welfare Effects of ASEAN Free Trade Area and Decomposition -- Table 2.9 The GTAP Model, Free Trade Agreement Analysis, and Developing Countries -- Table 3.1 Indonesian Trade Values, Quantities, and Unit Values with Selected ASEAN and Non-ASEAN Countries, 1991 and 1995 -- Table 3.2 Indonesian Geometric Mean Annual Growth Rates of Trade Quantities and Unit Values with Selected ASEAN and Non-ASEAN Countries, 1987-1991 -- Table 3.3 Indonesian Actual and Extrapolated Trade Statistics with Selected ASEAN and Non-ASEAN Countries, 1991-1995 -- Table 3.4 Regression Results from Gravity Model Estimation -- Table 3.5 Regression Results from Gravity Model Estimation with Trade Creation and Trade Diversion -- Table 3.6 Regression Results from Gravity Model Estimation with Trade Creation and Trade Diversion-Original Six ASEAN Members and Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam -- Figures -- Figure 1.1 Viner's Model of a Free Trade Agreement -- Figure 1.2 Meade-Lipsey Model of a Free Trade Agreement.

Figure 1.3 Wonnacott-Wonnacott Model of a Free Trade Agreement with Tariffs or Transport Costs on Exports to the World -- Figure 2.1 Intraregional Trade Shares of ASEAN, the EU27, and NAFTA, 1990-2008 -- Figure 2.2 Intraregional Trade Intensity Indices of ASEAN, the EU27, and NAFTA, 1990-2008 -- Figure 2.3 Trade Introversion Indices of ASEAN, the EU27, and NAFTA, 1990-2008 -- Figure 2.4 The Process of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis -- Figure 3.1 Structure of Imports and Formulas for Free Trade Agreement Preference Indicators -- Figure 3.2 Indonesian Food Manufacturing Value-Added and Imports from ASEAN and Non-ASEAN Countries, 1987-1996 -- Boxes -- Box 2.1 International Database for Trade Statistics -- Box 2.2 Database for Trade Integration Indicators -- Box 2.3 Various Study Results by Computable General Equilibrium Models -- Box 2.4 Country Coverage of the GTAP Database -- Box 3 Various Study Results by Gravity Model -- Box 4.1 Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs of the United States and the Republic of Korea -- Box 4.2 Technology Transfer in Free Trade Agreements.

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