Trade and Employment in the Global Crisis.
- 1st ed.
- 1 online resource (172 pages)
Intro -- Contents -- List of tables, figures and boxes -- TABLES -- Table 2.1 OLS regression results for crisis impact versus exposure to potential transmission channels -- Table 2.2 World merchandise exports and imports by region, 2008-09 -- Table 2.3 World manufacturing exports by quarter, 2008-09 Q3 -- Table 2.4 GDP and employment growth by region, 2009 versus 2007 -- Table 2.5 Unemployment by region, 2009 versus 2007 -- Table 2.6 Labour force participation by region, 2009 versus 2007 -- Table 3.1 Major economic indicators for countries covered by ILO crisis studies -- Table 3.2 Selected labour market statistics (pre-crisis) for countries covered by ILO crisis studies -- Table 3.3 Ukraine: Sectoral impact of the crisis on the labour market -- Table 3.4 India: Change in employment in selected sectors, April 2008 to June 2009 -- Table 3.5 Brazil: Trade shock as used in the model -- Table 3.6 Brazil: Changes in factor incomes -- Table 3.7 Brazil: Factor payments by aggregate factors -- Table 3.8 Egypt: Foreign direct investment flows, 2004-09 -- Table 3.9 Egypt: Exports by commodity group, 2008-09 (US million) -- Table 3.10 Egypt: Estimated impact of the global economic crisis onlabour demand by sector -- Table 3.11 Egypt: Labour force, employment and unemployment, 2007-09 -- Table 4.1 Share of trade covered by new import-restricting measures of G20 members (percentages) -- Table 4.2 Examples of infrastructure programmes contained in stimulus packages -- FIGURES -- Figure 2.1 Real and nominal world merchandise exports by quarter, 2008-09 Q3 (Q1 2008=100) -- Figure 2.2 World market price indices for selected food items, 2005-09 (2000 M1 = 100) -- Figure 2.3 World market price indices for selected commodities, 2005-09 (2000 M1 = 100) -- Figure 2.4 Average exchange rate fluctuation by income group,2007-09 (percentages). Figure 2.5 Employment changes by economic activity, 2008-09 (selected economies, millions) -- Figure 2.6 Average change in wages by economic activity, Q1:Q3 2008-09 (selected economies, percentages) -- Figure 2.7 Average change in weekly hours of work, 2008-09 (selected economies, percentages) -- Figure 3.1 Ukraine: Impact of the global economic crisis by balance of payment positions, 2007-09 (US billion) -- Figure 3.2 Ukraine: Change in exports by product category, 2007-09 (US billion) -- Figure 3.3 Ukraine: International comparison of Herfindahl index of export product concentration (percentages) -- Figure 3.4 Ukraine: Composition of export portfolio, 2000-08 (percentages) -- Figure 3.5 Ukraine: Change in exports by destination, 2007-09 (US billion) -- Figure 3.6 Ukraine: Employment change versus share of output exported, by sector (percentages) -- Figure 3.7 Liberia: Selected indicators of world market price for rubber, 2005-2014 (US/kilogram) -- Figure 3.8 Liberia: Selected indicators of the world market price for rice, 2005-14 (US /tonne) -- Figure 3.9 Uganda: Channels of crisis impact, 2007-09 (US million) -- Figure 3.10 Uganda: Export changes by product group, 2008-09 (US million) -- Figure 3.11 Uganda: Informal export changes by product group, 2008-09 (US million) -- Figure 3.12 Uganda: Export and import price index and terms of trade, 2007-09 -- Figure 3.13 Uganda: Exchange rate, inflation and food exports, 2007-09 -- Figure 3.14 India: Exports to European Union and United States at constant 2003 prices, 2003-09 (billion rupees) -- Figure 3.15 South Africa: Exports to the European Union and the United States at constant 2000 prices, 2003-09 (billion rand) -- Figure 3.16 South Africa and India: Skill bias in employment effects of trade shock (percentages) -- Figure 3.17 India: Impact of trade shock on household income (percentages). Figure 3.18 South Africa: Impact of trade shock on household income (percentages) -- Figure 3.19 South Africa and India: Gender bias in employment effects of trade shock (percentages) -- Figure 3.20 India: Correlation between trade and employment shocks -- Figure 3.21 South Africa: Correlation between trade and employment shocks -- Figure 3.22 Brazil: Impact of the crisis on exports by destination (US billion) -- Figure 3.23 Brazil: Balance of payment and exchange rate fluctuations, 2005-09 -- Figure 3.24 Brazil: Employment index by sector, 2008-09 (2008 M12 = 1000) -- Figure 3.25 Brazil: Changes in real macroeconomic aggregates (percentages) -- Figure 3.26 Brazil: Real welfare per capita (equivalent variation, in 2000 real) -- Figure 3.27 Brazil: Changes in tax revenue (percentages) -- Figure 3.28 Brazil: Changes in employment due to labour migration (percentages) -- Figure 4.1 National stimulus plan measures by targeted economic activity -- BOXES -- Box 2.1 Long-term trends in world market volatility -- Box 2.2 Exchange rate volatility during the crisis -- Box 3.1 Policy responses to the crisis in Uganda and Liberia -- Box 3.2 Policy responses to the crisis in South Africa and India -- Box 3.3 Policy responses to the crisis in Brazil -- Box 3.4 Morocco: Policy responses to the crisis -- Box 3.5 Egypt: Policy responses to the crisis -- Box 4.1 Anti-dumping initiations against Ukraine's metallurgy exports since the begining of the crisis -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Trade flows and labour markets during the crisis. What global data tells us -- 2.1 Trade, employment and transmission of economic crises -- 2.2 Global trade and price trends during the crisis -- 2.3 Global employment and wage trends during the crisis -- 3. The impact of the crisis atthe country level and trade as a transmission channel. 3.1 Introduction to the ILO's country-level work on the crisis: What, where and how? -- 3.2 Ukraine: The role of export concentration -- 3.3 Liberia and Uganda: Interaction between global food and commodity price inflation in 2007/08 and the global economic crisis of 2008/09 -- 3.4 India and South Africa: Secondary effects of the trade shock -- 3.5 Brazil: Distributional effects of trade during the crisis -- 3.6 Egypt: Gender impact of trade during the crisis -- 4. Policy responses -- 4.1 Trade policy and trade finance -- 4.2 Sectoral and company-specific stimulus programmes -- 4.3 Cross-sectoral measures -- 4.4 Policy conclusions -- 5. Conclusions -- Annexes -- Annex 1 Description of variables in cross-country data on crisis impact and potential transmission channels -- Annex 2 Selected countries, exports by major product group, 2008 -- Annex 3 Description of the model and data used for the South Africa and India study -- Annex 4 Detailed results of the modelling exercise for India -- Annex 5 Detailed results of the modelling exercise for South Africa -- Annex 6 Description of the STAGE_LAB model and SAM used for the Brazil study -- Bibliography.