TY  - BOOK
AU  - Hubbard,Douglas W.
TI  - The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It
SN  - 9781119522041
AV  - HD61 .H833 2020 
U1  - 658.15/5 
PY  - 2020///
CY  - Newark
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
KW  - Risk management
KW  - Electronic books
N1  - Intro -- Table of Contents -- About the Author -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART ONE: An Introduction to the Crisis -- CHAPTER 1: Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management -- A "COMMON MODE FAILURE" -- KEY DEFINITIONS: RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOME RELATED TERMS -- WHAT FAILURE MEANS -- SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS BOOK -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 2: A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management -- A SHORT AND ENTIRELY-TOO-SUPERFICIAL HISTORY OF RISK -- CURRENT STATE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION -- CURRENT RISKS AND HOW THEY ARE ASSESSED -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 3: How Do We Know What Works? -- ANECDOTE: THE RISK OF OUTSOURCING DRUG MANUFACTURING -- WHY IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHAT WORKS -- AN ASSESSMENT OF SELF-ASSESSMENTS -- POTENTIAL OBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT -- WHAT WE MAY FIND -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model -- A SIMPLE ONE-FOR-ONE SUBSTITUTION -- THE EXPERT AS THE INSTRUMENT -- A QUICK OVERVIEW OF "UNCERTAINTY MATH" -- ESTABLISHING RISK TOLERANCE -- SUPPORTING THE DECISION: A RETURN ON MITIGATION -- MAKING THE STRAW MAN BETTER -- NOTE -- PART TWO: Why It's Broken -- CHAPTER 5: The "Four Horsemen" of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse -- ACTUARIES -- WAR QUANTS: HOW WORLD WAR II CHANGED RISK ANALYSIS FOREVER -- ECONOMISTS -- MANAGEMENT CONSULTING: HOW A POWER TIE AND A GOOD PITCH CHANGED RISK MANAGEMENT -- COMPARING THE HORSEMEN -- MAJOR RISK MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 6: An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk -- THE FRANK KNIGHT DEFINITION -- KNIGHT'S INFLUENCE IN FINANCE AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT -- A CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING DEFINITION -- RISK AS EXPECTED LOSS -- DEFINING RISK TOLERANCE -- DEFINING PROBABILITY -- ENRICHING THE LEXICON -- NOTES; CHAPTER 7: The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty -- THE RIGHT STUFF: HOW A GROUP OF PSYCHOLOGISTS MIGHT SAVE RISK ANALYSIS -- MENTAL MATH: WHY WE SHOULDN'T TRUST THE NUMBERS IN OUR HEADS -- "CATASTROPHIC" OVERCONFIDENCE -- THE MIND OF "ACES": POSSIBLE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF OVERCONFIDENCE -- INCONSISTENCIES AND ARTIFACTS: WHAT SHOULDN'T MATTER DOES -- ANSWERS TO CALIBRATION TESTS -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work -- A FEW EXAMPLES OF SCORES AND MATRICES -- DOES THAT COME IN "MEDIUM"?: WHY AMBIGUITY DOES NOT OFFSET UNCERTAINTY -- UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF SCALES: WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU -- DIFFERENT BUT SIMILAR-SOUNDING METHODS AND SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT-SOUNDING METHODS -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 9: Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management -- ALGORITHM AVERSION AND A KEY FALLACY -- ALGORITHMS VERSUS EXPERTS: GENERALIZING THE FINDINGS -- A NOTE ABOUT BLACK SWANS -- MAJOR MATHEMATICAL MISCONCEPTIONS -- WE'RE SPECIAL: THE BELIEF THAT RISK ANALYSIS MIGHT WORK, BUT NOT HERE -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 10: Where Even the Quants Go Wrong: Common and Fundamental Errors in Quantitative Models -- A SURVEY OF ANALYSTS USING MONTE CARLOS -- THE RISK PARADOX -- FINANCIAL MODELS AND THE SHAPE OF DISASTER: WHY NORMAL ISN'T SO NORMAL -- FOLLOWING YOUR INNER COW: THE PROBLEM WITH CORRELATIONS -- THE MEASUREMENT INVERSION -- IS MONTE CARLO TOO COMPLICATED? -- NOTES -- PART THREE: How to Fix It -- CHAPTER 11: Starting with What Works -- SPEAK THE LANGUAGE -- GETTING YOUR PROBABILITIES CALIBRATED -- USING DATA FOR INITIAL BENCHMARKS -- CHECKING THE SUBSTITUTION -- SIMPLE RISK MANAGEMENT -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 12: Improving the Model -- EMPIRICAL INPUTS -- ADDING DETAIL TO THE MODEL; ADVANCED METHODS FOR IMPROVING EXPERT'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES -- OTHER MONTE CARLO TOOLS -- SELF-EXAMINATIONS FOR MODELERS -- NOTES -- CHAPTER 13: The Risk Community: Intra- and Extra-organizational Issues of Risk Management -- GETTING ORGANIZED -- MANAGING THE MODEL -- INCENTIVES FOR A CALIBRATED CULTURE -- EXTRAORGANIZATIONAL ISSUES: SOLUTIONS BEYOND YOUR OFFICE BUILDING -- PRACTICAL OBSERVATIONS FROM TRUSTMARK -- FINAL THOUGHTS ON QUANTITATIVE MODELS AND BETTER DECISIONS -- NOTES -- Additional Calibration Tests and Answers -- Index -- End User License Agreement
UR  - https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/orpp/detail.action?docID=6124746
ER  -