Structural Change and Moderating Growth in the People's Republic of China : Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond.
- 1st ed.
- 1 online resource (50 pages)
Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Contents -- Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Acknowledgments -- Highlights -- 1 The World's Economic Engine is Changing and Slowing -- Fundamental changes are underway in the People's Republic of China -- These changes have substantial implications for growth -- There is a low-probability risk of a sharper slowdown -- 2 Implications of the People's Republic of China's Growth Moderation for the Rest of the World and Developing Asia -- Spillovers from gradual growth moderation -- What a sharp slowdown could look like: An event study analysis -- 3 The Impact on Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters -- Introduction -- The People's Republic of China's impact on commodity prices -- How a shock on People's Republic of China activity impacts commodity prices -- The impact of People's Republic of China moderation on commodity-exporting countries in developing Asia -- Discussion and conclusions -- 4 Spillovers through Trade and Production Linkages -- Introduction -- The trade channel approach: A panel regression approach -- Understanding sectoral effects: Analysis using world input-output data -- Looking forward: Shifting patterns of trade from the People's Republic of China's Belt and Road Initiative -- 5 Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Asia -- Technical Appendix -- References -- Tables, Figures, and Boxes -- Tables -- 1 Magnitudes of growth decelerations during disorderly slowdowns -- 2 Share of selected global commodities, PRC -- 3 Selected developing Asian economies and their main primary exports, 2013 -- 4 Impulse response function of a shock to PRC industrial production -- 5 Terms of trade estimation results -- 6 Growth panel regression results -- 7 Change in the total terms of trade and TOT effects, selected developing Asian economies. 8 Growth effects via exports to the PRC, selected developing Asian economies -- 9 Panel analysis with a fixed effect model: The effect of a PRC slowdown -- 10 Top BRI country destinations of the PRC's outward FDI -- Box Table -- Visitor arrivals from the PRC to selected Pacific destinations -- Appendix Tables -- A1 Structural break tests -- A2 Unit root tests with Flexible Fourier Form -- Figures -- 1 Working age population growth and old-age dependency, PRC -- 2 Shares in nominal GDP, PRC -- 3 Contributions to GDP growth, PRC -- 4 Average monthly factory worker wage, 2014 -- 5 Volume of trade in goods and services -- 6 PRC's growth and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts -- 7 GDP growth performance, PRC -- 8 Share of global GDP, PRC -- 9 Total social financing, PRC -- 10 Loans from shadow banks, PRC -- 11 Total debt, PRC -- 12 General government gross debt (2015), selected developing Asian economies -- 13 Foreign exchange reserves, PRC -- 14 Oil price assumptions -- 15 Effects of a gradual growth moderation in the PRC -- 16 Median growth rates of GDP demand components following disorderly slowdowns -- 17 US Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, 2004-present -- 18 Effects of a sharp growth decline in the PRC -- 19 Commodity prices approximated by Flexible Fourier Form -- 20 Commodity exports to the PRC of selected developing Asian countries, 2013 -- 21 Effects on commodity-exporting DMCs of a 1 percentage point decline in the PRC growth -- 22 Composition of developing Asia's exports to the PRC ( billion) -- 23 Composition of developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of total exports) -- 24 Developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of total exports) -- 25 Developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of GDP) -- 26 Exports of developing Asia to advanced economies and the PRC. 27 Impact of 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the PRC on the rest of developing Asia, 2007-2012 -- 28 Impact of 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the PRC on selected developing Asian economies, 2007-2012 -- 29 Sectoral impact of a PRC slowdown for selected developing Asian countries -- 30 Developing Asia: Index of competition with the PRC, 2014 -- A1 Commodity Prices Demarcating Structural Breaks -- Box Figures -- 1 Pacific trade with the PRC -- 2 Papua New Guinea: export price indexes -- 3 Timor-Leste: Petroleum revenues -- 4 Visitor arrivals in Palau by source.