Extreme Events : Observations, Modeling, and Economics.
- 1st ed.
- 1 online resource (440 pages)
- Geophysical Monograph Series ; v.214 .
- Geophysical Monograph Series .
Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Contributors -- PREFACE -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- 1.1. PART I: FUNDAMENTALS AND THEORY -- 1.2. PART II: EXTREME EVENTS IN EARTH'S SPACE ENVIRONMENT -- 1.3. PART III: CLIMATE AND WEATHER EXTREMES -- 1.4. PART IV: EXTREME EVENTS IN THE SOLID EARTH -- 1.5. PART V: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS -- 1.6. PART VI: PREDICTION AND PREPAREDNESS -- 1.7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- Part I Fundamentals and Theory -- Chapter 2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis -- 2.1. INTRODUCTION: UNIVARIATE EXTREME VALUE THEORY -- 2.2. MULTIVARIATE APPROACH -- 2.3. CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENT -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events -- 3.1. INTRODUCTION -- 3.2. EXTREME EVENTS AND DYNAMICAL COMPLEXITY: FORMULATION -- 3.3. ONE-DIMENSIONAL MAPS IN THE INTERVAL -- 3.4. SOME FURTHER EXTREME VALUE-RELATED PROPERTIES -- 3.5. SPATIALLY EXTENDED SYSTEMS -- 3.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 4 Skill of Data-based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies -- 4.1. INTRODUCTION -- 4.2. FORECAST CONCEPTS -- 4.3. THE DATA -- 4.4. THE FORECAST MODELS -- 4.5. PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION OF EXTREME ANOMALIES -- 4.6. FROM PROBABILISTIC TO DETERMINISTIC PREDICTIONS OF EXTREME ANOMALIES -- 4.7. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points -- 5.1. INTRODUCTION -- 5.2. TYPES OF TIPPING POINT -- 5.3. DETECTING BIFURCATIONS IN NOISY SYSTEMS -- 5.4. TIPPING POINTS IN THE ICE-CORE RECORD -- 5.5. EARLY WARNING OF BIFURCATIONS -- 5.6. EARLY WARNING OF THE END OF THE ICE AGE? -- 5.7. LIMITATIONS ON EARLY-WARNING CAPABILITY -- 5.8. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES. Chapter 6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach -- 6.1. INTRODUCTION AND MOTIVATION -- 6.2. MODEL AND NUMERICAL INTEGRATION METHOD -- 6.3. PHASE-LOCKING OF EXTREMA AND MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS -- 6.4. PULLBACK ATTRACTORS AND QUASI-PERIODIC ORBITS -- 6.5. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Part II Extreme Events in Earth's Space Environment -- Chapter 7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections -- 7.1. INTRODUCTION -- 7.2. A QUICK LOOK AT EXTREMES IN THE CME DATA -- 7.3. MORE SOPHISTICATED APPROACHES TO STUDY EXTREMES -- 7.4. ON THE TIME BETWEEN OCCURRENCES OF EXTREMES -- 7.5. THE DISTRIBUTION AND THE CLUSTERING OF FAST CMEs -- 7.6. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary -- 8.1. INTRODUCTION -- 8.2. EXTREME EVENTS IN THE GEOLOGICAL PAST -- 8.3. CHICXULUB IMPACT -- 8.4. CHICXULUB IMPACT AND K/Pg BOUNDARY LAYER -- 8.5. END-CRETACEOUS MASS EXTINCTION -- 8.6. DISCUSSION -- 8.7. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Part III Climate and Weather Extremes -- Chapter 9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States -- 9.1. INTRODUCTION -- 9.2. DATASETS, METHODOLOGY, AND FLOOD EVENTS -- 9.3. DAILY CIRCULATION TYPES -- 9.4. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN CIRCULATION TYPES AND FLOOD EVENTS -- 9.5. ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN CIRCULATION TYPES AND ENSO OR THE MJO -- 9.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma -- 10.1. INTRODUCTION -- 10.2. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STUDY SITE -- 10.3. HURRICANE WILMA -- 10.4. RESULTS -- 10.5. DISCUSSION -- ANNEX HURAC MODEL -- REFERENCES. Chapter 11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami -- 11.1. INTRODUCTION -- 11.2. NUMERICAL MODEL -- 11.3. IMPACT OF THE TSUNAMI AT PAKARANG CAPE, THAILAND -- 11.4. IMPACT OF THE TSUNAMI AT BANDA ACEH CITY, INDONESIA -- 11.5. MODELED TSUNAMI INUNDATION PROCESSES AT EACH STUDIED AREA -- 11.6. INTEGRATED ANALYSES OF THE DAMAGE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE TSUNAMI -- 11.7. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation -- 12.1. INTRODUCTION -- 12.2. PARAMETRIC WAVE EXCITATION -- 12.3. MODULATION INSTABILITY OF CAPILLARY WAVES -- 12.4. CAPILLARY ROGUE WAVES -- 12.5. SOLITONIC NATURE OF CAPILLARY RIPPLE -- 12.6. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Part IV Extreme Events in the Solid Earth -- Chapter 13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach -- 13.1. INTRODUCTION -- 13.2. EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI HISTORICAL DATA OF THE MEXICAN PACIFIC COAST -- 13.3. GEOLOGICAL DATA -- 13.4. HISTORICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL DATA IN SUPPORT OF GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE OF EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS IN GUERRERO -- 13.5. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations -- 14.1. INTRODUCTION -- 14.2. GLOSSARY -- 14.3. RECORD OF HARMFUL LANDSLIDE EVENTS IN ITALY -- 14.4. RISK EVALUATION -- 14.5. COMPARISON TO OTHER NATURAL HAZARDS -- 14.6. CONNECTIONS BETWEEN LANDSLIDES AND OTHER HAZARDS -- 14.7. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment -- 15.1. INTRODUCTION -- 15.2. ERUPTION SIZE AND IMPACT. 15.3. EXTREME VALUE THEORY APPROACH TO MODELING OCCURRENCES OF VERY LARGE ERUPTIONS IN GROUPS OF VOLCANOES -- 15.4. SCALING LAWS AND EXTREME VALUE METHODS: APPLICATIONS TO INDIVIDUAL AND GROUPS OF VOLCANOES -- 15.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Part V Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events -- Chapter 16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory -- 16.1. INTRODUCTION -- 16.2. EXTREME VALUE THEORY -- 16.3. DAMAGE FUNCTIONS -- 16.4. ECONOMIC DAMAGE CAUSED BY HURRICANES -- 16.5. DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach -- 17.1. INTRODUCTION -- 17.2. HYBRID APPROACH FOR THE ESTIMATION OF DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF EXTREME MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES -- 17.3. EXTREME MAGNITUDE SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES WORLDWIDE AND IN MEXICO -- 17.4. SYNTHETIC ACCELEROGRAMS IN MEXICO CITY FOR AN EXTREME MW 8.5 MAGNITUDE SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO WITH AN EPICENTER IN THE GUERRERO REGION -- 17.5. ESTIMATION OF THE PRELIMINARY DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS ON MEXICO CITY'S ONE- TO THREE-FLOOR DWELLING STOCK DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF AN EXTREME MW 8.5 MAGNITUDE SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO IN THE GUERRERO REGION -- 17.6. SYNTHETIC ACCELEROGRAMS IN GUADALAJARA FOR AN EXTREME MW 8.5 MAGNITUDE SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO WITH AN EPICENTER IN THE COLIMA-JALISCO REGION -- 17.7. ESTIMATION OF THE DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS IN GUADALAJARA ONE- TO THREE-FLOOR DWELLING STOCK DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF AN EXTREME MW 8.5 MAGNITUDE SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO IN THE COLIMA-JALISCO REGION -- 17.8. CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Appendix 17.A. Modeling of the wave propagation of the 1985 Mw 8.01 magnitude Michoacan, Mexico earthquake. Appendix 17.B. Modeling of the wave propagation of the 9 October 1995 Mw 8.0 magnitude Colima-Jalisco, Mexico earthquake -- Appendix 17.C. Modeling of the wave propagation of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake -- Appendix 17.D. Preliminary modeling of the wave propagation of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake -- Appendix 17.E. Computation of the PEI for the Mw 8.5 earthquake scenario -- Appendix 17.F. Computation of the damage area for the Mw 85 earthquake scenario -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts -- 18.1. INTRODUCTION -- 18.2. INTRASEASONAL TIMESCALES -- 18.3. SEASONAL TIMESCALES -- 18.4. DECADAL TIME-SCALES -- 18.5. ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE -- 18.6. QUANTIFIED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS -- 18.7. CONCLUSIONS -- Glossary -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy -- 19.1. INTRODUCTION -- 19.2. BUSINESS CYCLE DYNAMICS -- 19.3. NATURAL DISASTERS IN A DYNAMIC ECONOMY -- 19.4. VALIDATION WITH U.S. ECONOMIC INDICATORS -- 19.5. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Appendix 19.A. NEDyM WITH SHOCKS -- Appendix 19.B. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS -- Appendix 19.C. A RANDOMLY FORCED OSCILLATOR -- REFERENCES -- Part VI Prediction and Preparedness -- Chapter 20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts -- 20.1. INTRODUCTION -- 20.2. TSUNAMI AND SEISMIC HAZARD IN THE MEDITERRANEAN -- 20.3. METHODOLOGY -- 20.4. RESULTS -- 20.5. DISCUSSION -- 20.6. Conclusion -- Acknowledgments -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 21 High-Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme Events -- 21.1. INTRODUCTION: CONFLICTING INTERPRETATIONS -- 21.2. COMPARISON WITH OYSTER CREEK -- 21.3. THE TSUNAMI LANDSCAPE -- 21.4. TSUNAMIS AS GUIDED WAVES -- 21.5. THE HUMAN SETTING -- 21.6. STRATEGIES OF SURVIVAL: AUTONOMY AND CASCADING FAILURES. 21.7. CONCLUSION: A COMPLEX FAILURE.