Criminal Careers and Career Criminals, : Volume II.

CRIMINAL CAREERS AND "CAREER CRIMINALS" -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Issues in the Measurement of Criminal Careers -- ALTERNATIVE MEASUREMENT APPROACHES -- CONVERGENCE OR DISCREPANCY IN ESTIMATES -- Social Class -- Race -- EFFECTS OF RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY ON ESTIMATES -- Reliability of Self-Reports of Crime -- Validity of Self-Reports of Crime -- Reverse Record Checks -- SOURCES OF RESPONSE EFFECTS ON VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY -- Interviewer Characteristics -- Task Characteristics -- Structural Characteristics -- Question Characteristics -- Respondent Characteristics -- Characteristics of Serious, Chronic Offenders -- Effects of Serious, Chronic Offender Characteristics on Responses -- LIMITATIONS OF OFFICIAL RECORDS -- RESEARCH STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE MEASUREMENT -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES -- 2 The Impact of Substance Abuse on Criminal Careers -- OVERVIEW -- Approach -- Summary of Findings -- CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON DRUG USE AND CRIME -- Drug Use and Crime Rates Among Youths and Adults -- Studies of Youths -- Studies of Adults -- Diversity of Crimes Among Drug Users -- Conclusion -- Drug Use and Violent Crimes -- Conclusion -- Drug-Distribution Activities and the Measurement of Crime Rates -- Conclusion -- Onset of Drug Use and Crime: Does It Matter Which Occurred First? -- Conclusion -- Drug Use Among Arrestees -- Conclusion -- Marijuana and Crime-A Weak Link -- Conclusion -- PCP and Violent Crime-A Stronger Link -- Conclusion -- The Role of Hard-Drug Use in Crime -- Conclusion -- Interventions for Reducing Drug Use and Crime -- Conclusion -- Identifying High-Rate Drug Users -- Conclusion -- SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH -- What Is the Course of Drug Use and Crime in Persons Who Have Been Processed by the Criminal Justice ... -- What Impact Does Reducing the Availability of Drugs Have on Drug Use and Crimes?.

What Is the Relationship Between Drug Use and Crime Among Females and Do Females Require Specific Ty ... -- What Types of Crimes and Associated Problems Are Common to More Affluent Drug Users? -- How Can Offenders Who Are Using Drugs Be Identified? -- Assuming That Drug-Using Offenders Can Be Identified, Can This Information Predict Future Criminal B ... -- Assuming That Drug Use by an Offender Is a Good Predictor of Future Criminal Behavior, How Should Th ... -- How Can We Prevent the Onset of Serious Drug Use and Crime? -- CONCLUDING COMMENTS -- APPENDIX A -- METHODOLOGIC PROBLEMS IN STUDYING SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND CRIME -- RARITY OF HARD-DRUG USE IN THE GENERAL POPULATION -- VALIDATING DRUG USE -- EPISODIC NATURE OF HARD-DRUG USE -- POLYDRUG USE AMONG HEAVY DRUG USERS -- MEASURING DRUG USE AND CRIME -- APPENDIX B -- STUDIES OF DRUG ABUSE AND CRIME -- Evaluation of the Calfornia Civil Addict Program (McGlothlin, Anglin, and Wilson, 1977) -- Analysis of Drugs and Crime Among Arrestees in the District of Columbia (Wish, Klampp, et al., 1980) -- Varieties of Criminal Behavior (Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982) -- Criminality Among Heroin Addicts in Baltimore (Ball et al., 1981 -- Nurco, Cisin, and Balter, 1981a,b, ... -- National Youth Survey (Elliott and Huizinga, 1984) -- Economic Behavior of Street Opiate Users (Johnson et al., 1985) -- Studies from the National Institute of Justice-Funded Interdisciplinary Research Center (IRC) for th ... -- Additional Current Studies -- REFERENCES -- 3 The Relationship of Problem Drinking to Individual Offending Sequences -- INTRODUCTION -- METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES -- Definition and Measurement of Problem Drinking -- Definition and Measurement of Criminal Careers -- Study Populations -- Polydrug Use -- Gender and Race -- Making Inferences About Alcohol Effects -- ASSESSMENT OF THE LITERATURE -- The Juvenile Period.

General-Population Studies -- Delinquent-Population Studies -- Etiology of Drinking and Crime in Juveniles -- Summary: Juveniles -- The Young Adult Period -- General-Population Studies of Young Adults -- Alcohol Problems and Criminality in "Captured" Samples of Young Adults -- Discussion: Young Adults -- Later Adult Years: Drinking and Crime -- SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS -- Summary of Findings -- How Much Crime Does Problem Drinking Explain? -- Methodological Issues -- Recommendations and Implications -- REFERENCES -- 4 Co-Offender Influences on Criminal Careers -- INTRODUCTION -- Selective Incapacitation of Offenders -- Age of Intervention -- Target of Intervention Strategies -- THE NATURE OF GROUP OFFENDING -- SOME PRELIMINARY ISSUES -- Crime Incidents, Their Victims, and Their Offenders -- Lone and Group Offenders in Criminal Careers -- Effects of Criminal Justice Processing on Estimates of Group Offending -- BASIC PARAMETERS OF GROUP OFFENDING -- Offending and Group Size -- Age of Onset -- Group Affiliation and Individual Rates of Offending -- Duration of Accomplice Relationships -- Stability of Group Affiliation -- PATTERNS IN GROUP OFFENDING -- Sex -- Race -- Age -- Type of Offense -- Relationship Between Victims and Offenders -- Territorial Concentration -- Siblings in Offending -- ROLE OF GROUPS IN RECRUITMENT FOR CO-OFFENDING -- Structure of Delinquent Peer Networks -- Structure of Adult Networks -- Dual Processes of Recruitment in Groups -- Recruitment into Offending Groups -- Recruitment of Accomplices -- Recruiter Effects on Offending -- CHANGES IN THE GROUP COMPOSITION OF OFFENDING -- MODELS OF CO-OFFENDING IN CRIMINAL CAREERS -- GROUP OFFENDING AND DESISTANCE FROM CRIMINAL CAREERS -- Empirical Studies of Desistance from Group Offending -- Group Processes in Selective Attrition from Criminal Careers -- Specific Deterrence.

Status Transitions -- Disruption of Group Affiliation -- INTERVENTION ISSUES AND GROUP OFFENDING -- Probability of Being Caught in Co-Offending -- Early Identification of Career Criminals -- Sanctioning Group Offenders -- Intervention Strategies and Group Offending -- Group Recruitment and Replacement Processes -- CONCLUDING NOTES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- REFERENCES -- 5 The Rand Inmate Survey: A Reanalysis -- THE SECOND RAND INMATE SURVEY -- Data and Methods -- Purposes of the Rand Study -- The Rand Results -- Criticisms of the Rand Study -- Ethical Concerns -- Empirical Concerns -- REANALYSIS -- Estimating λ from the Rand Data -- "Active" and "Inactive" Offenders -- Determining Street Months -- Determining Crimes Committed -- Calculation of λ -- The High-Frequency Offenders -- Development of a Prediction Scale -- Identifying the Seven Variables -- Relationships Among Variables -- Missing Data -- Accuracy of Scale -- Incapacitative Effects Using a Prediction Scale -- The Incapacitative Effect of Incarceration -- A Selective Incapacitation Model -- Selecting Scale Cut Points -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- APPENDIX A: SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES -- APPENDIX B: DESCRIPTION OF QUESTIONS USED TO CONSTRUCT THE SEVEN VARIABLES -- APPENDIX C: CALCULATION OF POTENTIAL INCAPACITATIVE EFFECTS USING DATA REPORTED BY GREENWOOD -- REFERENCES -- 6 Accuracy of Prediction Models -- PREDICTIVE DECISION MAKING -- The Logic of Prediction -- The Nature of Decisions -- Problems of Measuring "Accuracy" -- Reliability -- Methods of Combining Information -- The Base Rate -- Selection Ratios -- Representativeness of Samples -- Cross-Validation -- Measures of Predictive Accuracy -- Other Problems Concerning "Accuracy" -- RESEARCH EVIDENCE: THE POWER OF PREDICTION -- Bail and Pretrial Release Decision/Prediction Studies -- Descriptive Studies -- Normative Studies.

Prosecution Decision Studies -- Descriptive Studies -- Normative Studies -- Sentencing Decisions -- Descriptive Studies -- Normative Studies -- Parole Prediction-Decision Studies -- Descriptive Studies -- Normative Studies -- COMMON CORRELATES -- HOW SUCCESSFUL ARE PREDICTION-BASED SELECTION RULES? -- APPLICATIONS OF PREDICTION IN STRUCTURING DISCRETION -- Bail and Pretrial Release Prediction-Based Tools -- Sentencing Decision Tools -- Proposals for "Selective Incapacitation" -- Sentencing Guidelines -- Tools to Structure Parole Decision Making -- The Salient Factor Score -- The Iowa Instrument -- Summary -- DISCUSSION -- Do Prediction Models Improve Criminal Justice Decisions? -- Can Predictive Accuracy Be Improved? -- Improved Reliabilities -- Improved Measurement -- Use of the Most Appropriate Analytic Methods -- Statistical Bootstrapping -- Theory-Driven Approaches to the Prediction Problem -- Statistical-Subjective Bootstrapping -- Attention to Ethical Concerns -- Is Prediction Currently Accurate Enough to Be Useful? -- REFERENCES -- 7 Some Methodological Issues in Making Predictions -- POINT-SCORING METHODS -- PREDICTIVE POWER, CALIBRATION, AND SHRINKAGE OF PREDICTION EQUATIONS -- Validation and Shrinkage -- Shrinkage as a Statistical Effect-Cause (a) -- Shrinkage in the Light of Changes in the Population-Cause (b) -- Changes in the Regression Relationship-Cause (c) -- Some Concluding Remarks -- Practical Utility -- Predictive Power -- Prediction Errors -- SAMPLE-REUSE METHODS -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- 8 Purblind Justice: Normative Issues in the Use of Prediction in the Criminal Justice System -- THE ANATOMY OF PREDICTION IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM -- The Offense -- The Offender -- A Predictive Rule -- A Consequential Decision -- The Central Ethical Issues.

GENERAL NOTIONS OF JUSTICE AND STANDARDS OF CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM PERFORMANCE.

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