Natural Climate Variability on Decade-To-Century Time Scales.

Natural Climate Variability On Decade-to-Century Time Scales -- Copyright -- Preface -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- THE CHALLENGE -- FINDINGS FROM THE WORKSHOP PAPERS -- RECOMMENDATIONS -- 1 Introduction -- ASSESSING DECADE-TO-CENTURY-SCALE VARIABILITY -- PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THIS VOLUME -- REFERENCE -- 2 The Atmosphere -- Introduction -- Atmospheric Observations -- INTRODUCTION -- IDENTIFYING CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS -- THE FORCING AGENTS OF CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS -- CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- DOCUMENTING NATURAL CLIMATIC VARIATIONS: HOW DIFFERENT IS THE CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY FROM THAT OF PREVIOUS… -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- THE MODERN (INSTRUMENTAL) RECORD -- Characteristics of Decadal-Scale Changes of Area-Mean Temperature Indices -- Changes in Temperature Variability -- THE PRE-INSTRUMENTAL PERIOD -- Tree-Ring Indicators -- Oxygen Isotopes -- Central England Temperature -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- Commentary on the Paper of Diaz and Bradley -- Discussion -- VARIABILITY OF AFRICAN RAINFALL ON INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL TIME SCALES -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- METHODOLOGY -- CONTINENTAL-SCALE PATTERNS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY -- DECADAL-SCALE FLUCTUATIONS -- Fluctuations During Recent Decades -- Teleconnections and Other Characteristics of Rainfall Variability: Comparison of Modern and Historic… -- Fluctuations on Time Scales of Centuries -- INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL -- MECHANISMS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY -- Land-Surface Feedback in the Sahel -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS -- ON THE INITIATION AND PERSISTENCE OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- ONSET OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT -- PERSISTENCE OF THE SAHEL DROUGHT -- THE FUTURE -- Discussion -- CONTINENTAL SNOW COVER AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICAL BACKGROUND -- SNOW COVER AND ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY: SHORT-TERM RELATIONSHIPS.

Observational Studies -- Modeling Studies -- SNOW COVER AND ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY: DECADE-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES -- Observational Studies -- Modeling Studies -- CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Walsh -- Discussion -- DECADAL VARIATIONS OF SNOW COVER -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- IN SITU OBSERVATIONS -- SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS -- Short-Wave and Microwave Snow Charting -- Hemispheric Snow Products: NOAA Weekly Charts -- Hemispheric Snow Products: NASA Microwave Files -- Northern Hemisphere Continental Snow Cover: 1972-1992 -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- VARIABILITY AND TRENDS OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL OVER NORTH AMERICA -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA SELECTION AND PROCESSING -- Networks Used -- Data Processing -- Snowfall Scale Correction -- CURRENT CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL -- Snowfall Changes During the Last Four Decades -- Annual Precipitation Changes During the Last Four Decades -- Century-Long Precipitation Changes -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Groisman and Easterling -- Discussion -- ASYMMETRIC TRENDS OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE AND POSSIBLE CAUSES -- ABSTRACT -- BACKGROUND -- OBSERVED CHANGES OF MEAN MAXIMUM, MINIMUM, AND DIURNAL RANGE -- Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Contemporary Trends -- Longer-Term Variations -- Relation to Variations of the Seasonal and Annual Extremes -- Data Quality -- INFLUENCES ON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE -- Local Effects -- Urban Heat Islands -- Climatic Effects -- LARGE-SCALE ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECTS -- Greenhouse Gases -- Tropospheric Aerosols -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Discussion -- DECADAL OSCILLATIONS IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- ANALYSIS OF OSCILLATIONS IN AIR TEMPERATURE -- DISCUSSION -- ADDENDUM -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.

APPENDIX A -- Discussion -- OBSERVED VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS FROM UPPER-AIR DATA -- Wave Trains -- Mechanisms -- INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS ASCERTAINED FROM SURFACE DATA -- LONGER-TIME-SCALE VARIATIONS FROM PROXY DATA -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Karoly -- Discussion -- SURFACE CLIMATE VARIATIONS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING WINTER, 1900-1989 -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- DATA AND METHODS -- Data -- Methods -- RESULTS -- EOF Modes of Surface Temperature Variability -- RELATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY TO THE SURFACE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION -- Dipole Pattern -- Gulf Stream Pattern -- DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Deser and Blackmon -- Discussion -- SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL FLUCTUATIONS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE PACIFIC: EFFECTS OF MONTHLY WINDS AND HEAT FLUXES -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE FOR ANOMALOUS AIR-SEA HEAT EXCHANGE -- Data -- Bulk Formula Parameterizations -- Errors in the Latent and Sensible Fluxes -- Anomalous Variability of the Heat-Flux Components -- Flux Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation -- Flux Anomalies and SST -- OCEAN MODEL -- Forcing Functions and Model Runs -- Spin-up -- Monthly Forcing Fields -- Adjustment of the Marine Weather Data -- Mechanisms of SST Variability -- SST Response: Model vs. Observations -- The 1976-1977 SST Shift -- SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION -- Commentary on the Paper of Cayan et al. -- Discussion -- Atmospheric Observations Reference List -- Atmospheric Modeling -- THE MODELING HIERARCHY -- VALIDATION METHODOLOGY -- MODELING LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY: THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT AND THE INTERPRETATION OF PALEOCLI ... -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- CLIMATE CHANGE SINCE PRE-INDUSTRIAL TIMES.

QUANTIFYING LOW-FREQUENCY VARIABILITY -- Using Observational Data -- Using Models -- The Importance of Climate Sensitivity -- INTERPRETING THE PALEOCLIMATIC RECORD -- Discussion -- DETECTION OF FORCED CLIMATE SIGNALS -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- AN EXAMPLE -- MEAN-SQUARE-ERROR FORMALISM -- OPTIMAL-FILTER SOLUTION -- PROPERTIES OF THE OPTIMAL FILTER -- PILOT MODELS FOR CLIMATE SIGNAL DETECTION -- SUNSPOT EXAMPLE -- GREENHOUSE-WARMING DETECTION -- CONCLUSIONS -- Discussion -- CONSTRAINING POSSIBILITIES VERSUS SIGNAL DETECTION -- ABSTRACT -- REMARKS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- MODELING THE POSSIBLE CAUSES OF DECADAL-TO-MILLENNIAL-SCALE VARIABILITY1 -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- NATURAL VARIABILITY -- VARIABILITY OF THE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM -- SOLAR VARIABILITY -- VOLCANIC AEROSOLS -- TRACE-GAS VARIATIONS -- DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Rind and Overpeck -- Discussion -- NATURAL AND FORCED VARIABILITY IN THE CLIMATE RECORD -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- STRUCTURE AND SEASONALITY OF VARIATIONS IN SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE -- THE SIGNAL OF EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION IN THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE FIELD -- TRENDS IN SURFACE-AIR TEMPERATURE VERSUS TEMPERATURES ALOFT -- LOWER STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE -- DISCUSSION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Wallace -- Discussion -- Atmospheric Modeling Reference List -- 3 The Ocean -- Introduction -- Ocean Observations -- INTRODUCTION -- HISTORY OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS -- INTO THE PRESENT -- TOWARD THE FUTURE -- MARINE SURFACE DATA FOR ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC FLUCTUATIONS ON INTERANNUAL-TO-CENTURY TIME SCALES -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- OUTLINE OF CREATION OF GISST 1.0 -- TECHNIQUES AND QUALITY CONTROLS USED FOR GISST -- 1. -- 2. -- 3. -- 4. -- 5. -- 6. -- 7. -- 8. -- 9. -- INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF GISST 1.0 -- REVISIONS TO GISST -- MARINE WINDS.

CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY" INTEGRATIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Parker et al. -- Discussion -- DECADAL-SCALE VARIABILITY OF ICE COVER AND CLIMATE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND GREENLAND AND ICELAND SEAS -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP FOR AN INTERDECADAL ARCTIC CLIMATE CYCLE -- THE 1980s GISA -- CROSS-CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF SEA-ICE ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND GREENLAND SEA -- EVIDENCE FOR EARLIER GISAs -- POSSIBLE CONNECTIONS OF GISAs WITH LOWER-LATITUDE INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- The Arctic as a Trigger for Lower-Latitude Fluctuations -- Lower-Latitude Forcing of Arctic Fluctuations -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Mysak -- Discussion -- LONG-TERM SEA-LEVEL VARIATION -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- THE SEA-LEVEL RECORD -- REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SEA-LEVEL ACCELERATION -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENT -- Commentary on the Paper of Douglas -- Discussion -- ACOUSTIC THERMOMETRY OF OCEAN CLIMATE1 -- TRANSIENT TRACERS AS A TOOL TO STUDY VARIABILITY OF OCEAN CIRCULATION -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- TRANSIENT TRACERS -- Tritium/3He -- Halocarbons -- 85Krypton -- Bomb 14C -- BOUNDARY CONDITIONS -- Tritium/3He -- Halocarbons -- 85Krypton -- Bomb 14C -- TRACER RATIOS -- Tritium/3He Age -- CFC-11/CFC-12 Ratio -- CFC-113/CFC-11 Ratio -- CCl4/CFC-11 Ratio -- Tritium/85Krypton Ratio -- CFC-11/Tritium Ratio -- EVALUATION OF TRANSIENT TRACER DATA -- EXAMPLES OF TRACER TIME SERIES -- Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current -- European Polar Seas -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Commentary on the Paper of Schlosser and Smethie -- Discussion -- A FEW NOTES ON A RECENT DEEP-WATER FRESHENING1 -- ABSTRACT -- THE SALINITY DECREASE IN THE LABRADOR SEA OVER THE PAST THIRTY YEARS -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- 1966 COMPARED TO 1992 -- TIME SERIES OF SALINITY CHANGES.

TEMPERATURE AND DENSITY CHANGES IN THE LABRADOR SEA WATER.

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