Confronting Iraq : U. S. Policy and the Use of Force since the Gulf War.

PREFACE -- FIGURES -- SUMMARY -- AN ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK -- IRAQ AS AN ADVERSARY -- THE HISTORICAL RECORD -- IRAQ'S VULNERABILITIES AND COUNTERMOVES -- IMPLICATIONS FOR COERCION -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- ABBREVIATIONS -- INTRODUCTION -- UNDERSTANDING COERCION -- DEFINING COERCION -- DIFFICULTIES IN DISTINGUISHING COMPELLENCE FROM DETERRENCE -- COERCION AS A DYNAMIC PROCESS -- THE UNCERTAIN MEANING OF "SUCCESS" -- IRAQ AS AN ADVERSARY -- HOW SADDAM STAYS IN POWER -- Security and Regime Protection Forces -- Political Techniques -- IRAQ'S FOREIGN POLICY GOALS -- SADDAM'S SHIFTING STRATEGY -- Saddam as an Adversary: A Cagey Foe or Foolish Thug? -- U.S. OBJECTIVES, OPTIONS, ASSUMPTIONS -- ANALYTIC ASSUMPTIONS -- CONTAINING IRAQI AGGRESSION -- PREVENTING NBC BUILDUP -- TOPPLING SADDAM'S REGIME -- PRESERVING REGIONAL STABILITY -- CONSTRAINTS ON THE UNITED STATES -- Fear of Iraqi Fragmentation -- Discomfort with Sanctions -- Preserving an International Alliance -- Humanitarian Ambivalence -- Domestic Limits to Any Concessions -- ATTEMPTS TO COERCE IRAQ: THE HISTORICAL RECORD -- ESTABLISHING UNSCOM INSPECTIONS (1991) -- CREATING A KURDISH SAFE HAVEN (1991-1992) -- ESTABLISHING A SOUTHERN NO-FLY ZONE (AUGUST 1992- PRESENT) -- RESPONDING TO INSPECTION AND NO-FLY ZONE STANDOFFS (DECEMBER 1992- JANUARY 1993) -- DETERRING AN INVASION OF KUWAIT (1994) -- PUNISHING THE IRAQI THRUST INTO NORTHERN IRAQ (1996) -- HALTING DEFIANCE OF UNSCOM (1997-1998) -- FORCING COMPLIANCE WITH UNSCOM (OPERATION DESERT FOX, DECEMBER 1998) -- THE CHANGING DYNAMICS OF CONFRONTATION -- ATTEMPTS TO COERCE IRAQ: A SCORECARD -- U.S. POLICY TRADEOFFS AND GULF SECURITY -- IRAQ'S VULNERABILITIES: AN ASSESSMENT -- IRAQI PRESSURE POINTS -- WHAT IRAQ IS NOT SENSITIVE TO -- IRAQI COUNTERMOVES TO OFFSET VULNERABILITIES -- IMPLICATIONS FOR COERCION -- RECOGNIZING ADVERSARY CENTERS OF GRAVITY.

COERCION AS A DYNAMIC PROCESS -- UNDERSTANDING WHAT CANNOT BE AFFECTED -- INTEGRATING COERCIVE THREATS INTO LONG-TERM POLICY -- RECOGNIZING OUR OWN LIMITS -- BIBLIOGRAPHY.

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