The Energy World Is Flat : Opportunities from the End of Peak Oil.

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Disclaimer -- Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World -- Nuclear politics -- The sustained spike in natural gas prices -- Fracking and the collapse in US natural gas prices -- US tight oil -- Geopolitics and high crude oil prices -- Expensive oil, cheap natural gas -- The market does not attack, it defends itself -- Winners and losers -- Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble -- The bubble path -- Technological revolutions that increase supply. The "game changers" -- High expectations attract large amounts of capital -- Excessive expectations for demand growth result in overcapacity -- Think "against the box" -- The strategic premium results in overcapacity -- Overcapacity eventually reprices assets and the cost of services -- New technologies displace older and more expensive ones -- New technologies increase competition and create deflationary forces -- The bubble accelerated the impact of the revolution -- Timing: there is no such thing as a crystal ball -- Investors must avoid the growth mirage and value traps -- Lessons not to forget -- Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World -- Is the energy world flat? -- Chapter 4 Flattener #1 - Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin -- The oil weapon -- The revenge of the oil economy -- The Arab Spring -- Iraq 2014, the crisis that brought prices . . . down! -- The Venezuelan Spring -- Reserve nationalism and barriers of entry -- The gas weapon -- Russia versus Ukraine and the west? -- Ukraine shale gas -- The annexation of Crimea -- Europe needs Russia's gas . . . but for how long? -- Notes -- Chapter 5 Flattener #2 - The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut -- What energy scarcity? -- Reserves and resources.

Crude oil concentration, but no shortage -- OPEC almighty -- Reserve protectionism -- Marginal cost of production -- The "unconventional" resources -- Discoveries vs. additions: "can we rely on finding new oil fields?" -- Sorry, no peak oil -- Peak oil is a myth -- The spirit of peak oil -- No Peak Gas Either -- Gas formulas: "Water at Coca-Cola prices" -- Finally an Asian benchmark -- Let's buy Africa! -- Notes -- Chapter 6 Flattener #3 - Horizontal Drilling and Fracking -- Never bet against an engineer -- Technology increases volume -- Innovation vs. imitation -- "Fracking" and horizontal drilling -- Myths and realities of shale gas and tight oil -- What environmental impact? -- What contamination of drinking water aquifers? -- What flow back? -- How about water scarcity? -- What induced seismic activity? -- What methane migration? -- Are horizontal drilling and fracking commercially viable? -- Are governments supportive of fracking? -- How about shale gas and tight oil in China? -- What about the EROEI of shale gas? -- Notes -- Chapter 7 Flattener #4 - The Energy Broadband -- Pipelines open new markets -- Pipelines are very capital- and time-intensive investments -- The Eurasian continental network -- LNG and the globalization of natural gas -- From regional to global -- LNG super-cycle -- The winners and losers of the big asset write-off -- Solid methane -- Storage bottlenecks and commodity islands -- The high watermark and volatility dampeners -- Global strategic petroleum reserves -- Shipping, floating pipelines and storage -- The boom and bust of shipping -- Debottlenecking and super-backwardation -- Notes -- Chapter 8 Flattener #5 - Overcapacity -- Déjà-Vu -- Diplomatic demand outlook -- Saudi Arabia heavy sour crude oil -- Location, location, location -- Pro-cyclical behaviour -- Notes.

Chapter 9 Flattener #6 - Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization -- Testing the hypothesis of "Ever-Increasing" demand -- Demographic trend #1. The global population is growing, but at a slower pace -- Population growth vs. economic growth vs. energy demand growth -- The "Diplomatic" demand clause -- Notes -- Chapter 10 Flattener #7 - Demand Destruction -- More with less -- The "Invisible Hand" of efficiency -- The "Visible Hand" of efficiency -- Note -- Chapter 11 Flattener #8 - Demand Displacement -- The Battle for Transportation Demand -- What the production engineers missed -- The "Challengers" -- Biofuels -- Natural gas -- Bi-fuel engines -- Coal to liquids (CTL) and gas to liquids (GTL) -- Electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids (HEVs) -- Air transportation -- Sea transportation -- The end of crude oil's monopoly in transportation -- #1 Upfront cost -- #2 Running cost -- #3 Range and convenience -- The "Chicken and Egg" of Refuelling Stations -- Re-fuelling at home -- #4 Performance -- #5 Environment and subsidies -- #6 Safety -- #7 Security of supply -- The new frontier: hydrogen fuel -- "Who killed the electric car?" -- #1 Government bail-outs and subsidies -- #2 The tax cash cow -- #3 The wrong model for the industry? -- The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand -- Future fuel mix -- The Energy Domino -- Natural gas displaces coal in power generation -- US natural gas displaces diesel in transportation -- Solar displaces crude oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia -- Renewables displace natural gas from peak power demand -- The "visible hand" of environmental regulation displaces coal -- The "visible hand" of politics displaces nuclear -- The transmission to equity valuations -- Notes -- Chapter 12 Flattener #9 - Regulation and Government Intervention -- The role of the government -- Regulation vs. free markets.

The virtuous mix of regulation and free markets -- The vicious mix of regulation and politics -- Carrot and stick -- Privatization and deregulation are not the same -- Independence of the regulator -- The political cycle is too short -- The War on Pollution and Coal -- The war on pollution -- The war on coal -- Technology vs. pollution -- Regulatory constraints to coal plants -- Coal subsidies -- The clean and dirty spreads -- Second order effects from cheap coal -- The world of coal is flat -- Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices -- Negative electricity prices -- The collapse in the valuation of European utilities -- Renewables have changed the rules of power generation -- Implications from the new rules -- Are retail consumers better off? -- The world of wind power is becoming flat -- Don Quixote's windmills -- Wind power -- Wind competitiveness -- The world of solar power is far from flat -- Germany and the European Union love affair with solar -- The debacle of solar equities -- What went wrong? -- Marginal cost of solar PV is getting cheaper -- Solar leasing and green bonds -- Biofuels and Food Inflation -- Energy security in disguise -- The "regulatory carrot" -- The "regulatory stick" -- Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) -- The "ethanol blend wall" -- Food inflation and inequality -- Shortages and physical hoarding as flatteners -- Energy efficiency of biofuels -- Meat prices: "corn with legs" -- The super-cycle of farmland and agricultural logistical infrastructure -- Genetically modified crops -- A flatter agricultural world -- Notes -- Chapter 13 Flattener #10 - Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners -- The "OPEC put" -- At what level would OPEC stop defending the price? -- The Btu that broke OPEC's back -- Energy consumption in producing countries -- Mortgaged future production -- The paradox of plenty.

The Oil Tax Weapon -- Consumer governments addicted to oil taxes -- Consumer governments hostage of oil subsidies -- Government defence budgets -- Marshmallow behaviour -- Let's change the tax rules -- Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb -- Monetary experiments -- Black gold -- The race to the bottom -- The generational debate -- The monetary time bomb of credit risk -- Financial Flows. Let's Blame the Speculators -- Politicians and regulators pass the blame -- Causality -- Market manipulation -- Investor blow-ups -- Value at risk -- Notes -- Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets -- Concluding Remarks -- Notes -- Appendix For A Competitive European Energy Policy -- Index -- EULA.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.