Data-Driven Decision Making in Fragile Contexts : Evidence from Sudan.

Front Cover -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- About the Editors and Authors -- Abbreviations -- Introduction: What Contribution Can Survey Data Make toward Evidence-Based Policy Making in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Contexts? -- Part 1 General Theory and Principles of Survey Design and Political Economy Dynamics -- Chapter 1 The Political Economy of Data Collection and Evidence-Based Policy Making in Fragile Contexts -- Introduction -- Literature -- A Simple Model of the Political Economy of Data Collection and Availability -- Robustness Tests -- Limitations -- Conclusion and Policy Implications -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Chapter 2 Understanding and Preparing Survey Data for Quantitative Analysis -- Introduction -- Literature Review -- Data Collection -- Sampling Design -- Sample Weighting -- Data Cleaning -- Missing Responses -- Ordering of Responses -- Recoding of Responses -- Merging or Appending of Data -- Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 3 Working with Incomplete Data Sets -- Case Study: Conflict -- Case Study: Access to Finance -- Suggestions for Future Data Collection -- Conclusion -- Bibliography -- Chapter 4 Quantitative Analysis Using Household Survey Data -- Case Study: Public Services -- Advanced Quantitative Analysis-Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling -- Conclusion -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Part 2 Detailed Analysis of the Survey's Modules -- Chapter 5 Using Survey Data from Sudan for Policy Making: The Determinants of Trust and the Perceived Effect on Gender of Decisions by the Tribal Leader -- The Data Set -- Background to the Analysis: Sudan -- Literature -- Theory: Perceived Fairness and Trust -- Regression Results -- Conclusions and Implications -- Annex 5A: Generating Locational Variables in Stata -- Notes -- Bibliography.

Chapter 6 The Vicious Circle of Poverty, Poor Public Service Provision, and State Legitimacy in Sudan -- Introduction -- Background: Sudan -- The 2013 DFID Sudan Household Survey Data -- Discussion -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 7 Geography and Correlates of Attitudes toward Female Genital Mutilation in Sudan: What Can We Learn from Successive Sudan Opinion Poll Data? -- Background -- Methods -- Results -- Discussion -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 8 The Effect of Decentralization Policies on Inequalities of Public Service Delivery in Sudan -- Existing Research on Governance and Service Delivery in Sudan and Proposed Methodology -- Governance in Sudan: A Macro Perspective on Service Delivery -- Theoretical Framework: Decentralization and Service Delivery -- Fiscal Decentralization and Service Delivery in Sudan: Exploring Institutional Design and Available Data -- Decentralization and the Center-Periphery Hypothesis -- Conclusions -- Annex 8A Distribution of Responsibilities among Different Levels of Government in Sudan -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 9 Still Far from Development: Humanitarian Assistance Policy and Practice in Darfur between 2004 and 2014 -- Introduction -- Methodology -- Darfur in Context -- Effects of the Conflict on Livelihoods in Darfur -- Shrinking Humanitarian Space and Security and the Effect on Assistance -- Politicization of Humanitarian Aid, Push for Long-Term Solutions, and Effect on Assistance -- Effect of Political Pressure on Returns and Reintegration -- Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- Conclusion: Can We Use Survey Data? -- Box -- Box 5.1 Questionnaire Structure -- Figures -- Figure 2.1 Distribution of Responses to Two Questions in the Data Set -- Figure 3.1 Experiences of Conflict in the Past Year, by Gender -- Figure 3.2 Biggest Issues Facing Sudan Today at the State Level.

Figure 3.3 Access to Financial Services, by Income Group -- Figure 3.4 Access to Financial Services, by Center-Periphery Dynamic -- Figure 3.5 Access to Financial Services, by Center-Periphery Dynamic and Income -- Figure 3.6 Access to Financial Services, by Gender -- Figure 4.1 Perceptions of Service Quality, by Rural-Urban Location -- Figure 4.2 Perceptions of Service Quality, by Income Group -- Figure 4.3 Monthly Household Income, by Gender and Center-Periphery Location -- Figure 4.4 Ratings of Public Services for Three States -- Figure 4.5 Average Overall Perception of Quality versus Average Overall Level of Trust, at the Individual Level -- Figure 4.6 Theoretical Framework for the Determinants of Service Quality -- Figure 4.7 Regression of Service Quality Rating on Demographics and Trust Factors, with Trust Factors as "Mediators" -- Figure 4.8 Regression of Service Quality Rating on Socioeconomic and Demographic Variables -- Figure 4.9 Regression of Service Quality Rating on Socioeconomic and Demographic Variables and Trust Factors -- Figure 4.10 Structure of Governance and Public Resource Flows in the Education Sector -- Figure 5.1 Trust in Tribal Leader -- Figure 5.2 Location-Based Tribal Trust and Location-Based Education -- Figure 5.3 Location-Based Tribal Trust and Location-Based Fairness -- Figure 5.4 Regression Coefficients on State Variables -- Figure 6.1 Political Participation and State Legitimacy -- Figure 7.1 Share of Study Participants, by Educational Attainments -- Figure 7.2 Share of Study Participants, by Reasons That FGM Should Continue -- Figure 7.3 Proportion of Study Participants, by Self-Perceived Identity -- Figure 7.4 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Educational Attainments, 2012/13 -- Figure 7.5 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Educational Attainments, 2014.

Figure 7.6 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Trust in Local Government, 2012/13 -- Figure 7.7 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Trust in Local Government, 2014 -- Figure 7.8 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Self-Perceived Identity, 2012/13 -- Figure 7.9 Likelihood of Pro-FGM Attitude, by Self-Perceived Identity, 2014 -- Figure 7.10 Estimated Nonparametric Effect of Respondent's Age -- Figure 8.1 Worldwide Governance Indicators for Sudan, Percentile Ranks -- Figure 8.2 Public Education Spending, 2005-08 -- Figure 8.3 Per Capita Central Government Transfers, by State, 2000-10 Average -- Figure 8.4 Perceived Quality of Services -- Figure 9.1 Reasons for Leaving Home, Darfur -- Figure 9.2 Total Humanitarian Aid to Sudan, by Year, 2002-14 -- Figure 9.3 Funding for Reintegration and Recovery, 2010-15 -- Figure 9.4 Funding for Food and Livelihoods Sector, 2002-14 -- Maps -- Map 3.1 Distribution of Monthly Household Income, State Level -- Map 3.2 Populations of Internally Displaced Persons -- Map 3.3 Experience of War at the State Level -- Map 3.4 Displacement at the State Level -- Map 3.5 Food Insecurity in Sudan -- Map 3.6 Starting a Business at the State Level -- Map 7.1 The Observed Proportion of People with Positive Attitudes Surrounding FGM Continuation (Pro-FGM), by State -- Map 7.2 Adjusted Total Residual Spatial Effects of Positive Attitudes Surrounding FGM Continuation (Pro-FGM), State Level, 2012/13 -- Map 7.3 Spatial Residual Effects of Positive Attitudes Surrounding FGM Continuation (Pro-FGM), State Level, 2012/13 -- Map 7.4 Adjusted Total Residual Spatial Effects of Positive Attitudes Surrounding FGM Continuation (Pro-FGM), State Level, 2014 -- Map 7.5 Spatial Residual Effects of Positive Attitudes Surrounding FGM Continuation (Pro-FGM), State Level, 2014 -- Tables -- Table 2.1 DFID Sudan Household Surveys Design, 2013.

Table 2.2 Sampling Weights Based on Gender and Geographical Strata -- Table 2.3 Example of a Data Set in Wide Form -- Table 2.4 Example of the Same Data Set in Long Form -- Table 4.1 Nonresponse for Questions on Public Service Ratings -- Table 4.2 Correlation Matrix of Trust in Public Institutions -- Table 4.3 Factor Analysis of Trust in Public Institutions -- Table 4.4 Regression Results for Rating Public Schools -- Table 4.5 State-Level Regression Results for Rating Public Schools -- Table 5.1 Data Definitions -- Table 5.2 Summary Data on Identification in 2013 and 2014 DFID Sudan Household Surveys -- Table 5.3 Regression Results -- Table 5.4 Regressions Based on Location Variables Only -- Table 6.1 Summary Statistics -- Table 6.2 Summary Statistics: Urban vs. Rural and Poor vs. Nonpoor -- Table 6.3 State Legitimacy: Summary Statistics -- Table 6.4 Political Participation: Summary Statistics -- Table 7.1 Baseline Characteristics of the Study Population -- Table 7.2 Baseline Characteristics of the Study Population, by Intent to Continue FGM -- Table 7.3 Unadjusted and Fully Adjusted Odds Ratios of Intent to Continue FGM across Selected Covariates -- Table 7.4 Fully Adjusted and Bayesian Odds Ratios of Intent to Continue FGM across Selected Covariates -- Table 8.1 Three Layers of Problem-Driven Governance and Political Economy Analysis -- Table 8.2 Three Layers for Analyzing Service Delivery in Sudan by Applying Problem-Driven Governance and Political Economy Analysis -- Table 8.3 Strategies of Subversion Regarding Decentralization -- Table 8.4 Sudan's Central Government Revenues -- Table 8.5 Contingency Table on Party Affiliation in Sudan -- Table 9.1 Returned and Existing IDPs by Year, 2006-13.

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