Stuck in Transition : Reform Experiences and Challenges Ahead in the Kazakhstan Power Sector.

Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- Background -- Key Sector Challenges -- Approach and Methodology -- Note -- Chapter 2 Country Context and Economic Outlook -- Note -- References -- Chapter 3 Electricity Sector Overview and Status of Sector Reform -- Overall Electricity Balance -- Power Sector Institutions -- Renewable Energy Framework -- Tariff Regulation and Subsidies -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 4 Sector Strategy and Reforms -- Sector Strategy and Market Development -- Regional Electricity Links: From Net Imports to Net Exports -- High Energy Intensity -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 5 Supply-and-Demand Balance and Least-Cost Analysis -- Least-Cost Planning Study: Objective and Approach -- Supply and Demand -- Current Capacity Expansion Plan: 2015-30 -- Least-Cost Planning Analysis: 2015-45 -- Results and Discussion -- Summary and Conclusions from the Least-Cost Analysis -- Notes -- References -- Chapter 6 Key Findings and the Challenges Ahead -- Overview -- Key Findings -- Key Challenges -- Recommendations -- Reference -- Appendix A Generation Tariff Caps by Groups of Power-Generating Companies, 2016-18 -- Appendix B Least-Cost Expansion Model Description -- Appendix C Kazakhstan's National Electricity Grid -- Figures -- Figure 2.1 Production of Primary Energy Resources -- Figure 2.2 Proven Reserves of Energy Resources -- Figure 2.3 Poverty Rate in Kazakhstan, 2002-14 -- Figure 2.4 Poverty Rate, Middle Class, and Gini Coefficient, 2002 and 2014 -- Figure 2.5 Oil Prices and the Exchange Rate -- Figure 2.6 Oil Output and Price Outlook -- Figure 2.7 Kazakhstan's Gross Domestic Product Growth Outlook, 2012-17 -- Figure 2.8 Annual Consumption of Energy per Capita -- Figure 2.9 Household Consumption Structure per Capita, by Decile.

Figure 2.10 Annual Energy Consumption per Capita, by Decile -- Figure 2.11 Energy's Share of Annual Consumption per Capita, by Type and Decile -- Figure 3.1 Kazakhstan's Power Sector: Institutional Structure -- Figure 3.2 Kazakhstan's Power Sector Unbundled into Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Subsectors -- Figure 3.3 Installed Capacity, by Fuel Type and Zone -- Figure 3.4 Derated Capacity, by Fuel Type and Zone -- Figure 3.5 Tightening Supply and Demand Balance and Reserve Capacity, 1993-2014 -- Figure 3.6 Heat Energy Production, by 2030 -- Figure 3.7 Residential Electricity Tariffs, by Region -- Figure 3.8 Average Residential Electricity Tariff, 2007-14 -- Figure 4.1 Evolution and Devolution of Reforms, 1995-2016 -- Figure 4.2 Existing Model of Kazakhstan's Electricity Market -- Figure 4.3 New Model of Kazakhstan's Electricity Market -- Figure 4.4 Domestic Energy Trade, 2006-14 -- Figure 4.5 Energy Use per US1,000 Gross Domestic Product, Selected Countries, 2009 -- Figure 4.6 Energy Intensity of Gross Domestic Product in Kazakhstan, 2005-14 -- Figure 5.1 Historical Generation Mix and Demand, 1990-2012 -- Figure 5.2 Hourly Load per Zone on November 28, 2014 -- Figure 5.3 Energy Demand and Peak Load Projections by the Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company, to 2030 -- Figure 5.4 Base, High-, and Low-Demand Scenarios, 2001-25 -- Figure 5.5 Projected Generation Mix, 2012-30 -- Figure 5.6 Demand and Peak Demand Growth, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.7 Variable Renewable Energy Plan for the Optimization Period, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.8 Learning Curves for Overnight Capital Costs for Photovoltaic and Wind, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.9 Rehabilitation/Extension/Decommissioning Schedule of Existing Generation, 2014-45 -- Figure 5.10 Electricity Demand Growth in Kazakhstan for the Green Case Scenario, 2015-45.

Figure 5.11 Annual External Demand for Electricity, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.12 Annual External Capacity Required to Export Electricity to Central Asia and the Russian Federation, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.13 Generation, by Fuel Type (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.14 Thermal Generation, by Fuel Type (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.15 Generation, by Fuel Type (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.16 Generation, by Fuel as a Percentage of Total Generation (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.17 Installed Thermal Capacity, by Technology and Electrical Zone (Base Case Scenario), 2019-49 -- Figure 5.18 Available Capacity, by Fuel Type and Reserve Margin (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.19 Cumulative Undiscounted Capital Costs for the Generation Expansion Program (Base Case scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.20 Estimated Investment Requirements, 2015-30 -- Figure 5.21 Operational Costs, by Fuel (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.22 Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Systemwide Emissions Intensity (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.23 Generation, by Fuel Type (Green Case Scenario), 2019-49 -- Figure 5.24 Thermal Generation, by Fuel Type (Green Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.25 Generation, by Fuel Type as a Percentage of Total Generation (Green Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.26 Cumulative Undiscounted Capital Costs for the Generation Expansion Program (Base Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.27 Cumulative Undiscounted Capital Costs for the Generation Expansion Program (Green Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.28 Operational Costs, by Fuel (Green Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.29 Intensity of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Systemwide Emissions (Green Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.30 Green Case Scenario: Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Compared with 2012 Levels, 2015-45.

Figure 5.31 Generation, by Fuel (Regional Export Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.32 Comparison of Generation from Coal-Fired and Gas-Fired Power Plants between the Regional Export and Base Case Scenarios, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.33 Thermal-Installed Capacity, by Technology (Regional Export Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.34 Difference in Installed Capacity between the Regional Export and Base Case Scenarios -- Figure 5.35 Interzonal Transmission Capacity Requirements, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.36 Generation, by Fuel Type (Least-Cost Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.37 Comparison of Generation from Coal- and Gas-Fired Sources between the Base and Least-Cost Case Scenarios, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.38 Generation, by Fuel Type as a Percentage of Total Generation (Least-Cost Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.39 Installed Generation Capacity, by Technology (Least-Cost Case Scenario), 2015-45 -- Figure 5.40 Dynamics of Cumulative Operational Costs, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.41 Cumulative Emissions for the Least-Cost and Base Case Scenarios, 2015-45 -- Figure 5.42 Base Case Scenario 2020 Supply Curve: Generation versus Levelized Cost of Electricity -- Figure B.1 Inputs and Outputs of the PSR Expansion Planning Software -- Maps -- Map 3.1 Main Trunk Natural Gas Pipelines -- Map 3.2 Regional Zones of the National Power System -- Map 3.3 Kazakhstan's National Transmission Grid -- Map 3.4 Location of Regional Electricity Distribution Companies -- Map 3.5 Distribution of District Heating Generation across Kazakhstan, by Boiler Houses and Combined Heat and Power Plants -- Tables -- Table 1.1 Comparison of the Four Modeled Scenarios -- Table 3.1 Average per Capita and Total Fossil Fuel Subsidies -- Table 3.2 Fossil Fuel Subsidies, by Fuel Type, 2011-13 -- Table 4.1 Kazakhstan's Electricity Trade, 1990-2014 -- Table 5.1 Investment Requirements.

Table 5.2 Investment, by Plant Type -- Table 5.3 Summary of the Basic Assumptions for Each Scenario -- Table 5.4 Cost Assumptions for Technologies Used in the Least-Cost Expansion Study -- Table 5.5 Cost of Rehabilitation/Extension Program -- Table 5.6 Overnight Undiscounted Capital Investments in Generation Projects, by Zone (Base Case Scenario) -- Table 5.7 Overnight Undiscounted Capital Investments in New Generation and Rehabilitation (Base Case Scenario) -- Table 5.8 Difference in Capital Investments between Green and Base Case Scenarios -- Table 5.9 Carbon Prices Based on World Bank Guidelines -- Table 5.10 Difference in Undiscounted Capital Investments in Generation Projects between the Base and Regional Export Case Scenarios -- Table 5.11 Total Capital Investments in New Generation Technologies, Transmission, and Rehabilitation (Least-Cost Case Scenario) -- Table 5.12 Difference in Capital Investments in Generation Technologies between the Least-Cost and Base Case Scenarios -- Table 5.13 Summary of Scenario Costs -- Table B.1 Breakdown of Fixed and Variable Costs for the Least-Cost Expansion Plan.

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