Handbook of Warning Intelligence.

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Foreword to the Previous Edition -- Author's Note to Original Edition -- 1: General Nature of the Problem -- 2: Definitions of Terms and Their Usage -- 3: What Warning Is and Is Not -- 4: Warning and Collection -- 5: Intentions versus Capabilities -- 6: Problems of Organization and Management -- 7: Indicator Lists -- 8: The Compiling of Indications -- 9: Can Computers Help? -- 10: Some Fundamentals of Indications Analysis -- 11: Some Specifics of the Analytical Method -- 12: What Makes a Good Warning Analyst? -- 13: Importance of Military Indications -- 14: Order-of-Battle Analysis in Crisis Situations -- 15: Analysis of Mobilization -- 16: Logistics Is the Queen of Battles -- 17: Other Factors in Combat Preparations -- 18: Coping with Extraordinary Military Developments -- 19: Importance of Political Factors for Warning -- 20: Basic Political Warning-A Problem of Perception -- 21: Some Specific Factors in Political Warning -- 22: Economic Indicators -- 23: Civil Defense -- 24: Security, Counter-Intelligence and Agent Preparations -- 25: Warning from the Totality of Evidence -- 26: The Impact on Warning of -- 27: Reconstructing the Enemy's Decision-Making Process -- 28: Assessing the Timing of Attack -- 29: Deception: Can We Cope with It? -- 30: Analysis with Hostilities Already in Progress -- 31: Problems Peculiar to Guerrilla Warfare and "Wars of Liberation" -- 32: Hypothetical Problems of the Coming of World War III -- 33: Vital Importance of the Judgment -- 34: What Does the Policy Maker Need, -- 35: How to Write Indications or Warning Items -- 36: Assessing Probabilities -- 37: Some Major Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting -- 38: Most Frequent Errors in the Judgment and Reporting Process -- 39: A Summing Up, With Some Do's and Don'ts for Analysts and Supervisors -- About the Authors.

The Handbook was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment." This new edition includes the final ten chapters recently released by the government. This is the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.