Demystifying China's Mega Trends : The Driving Forces That Will Shake up China and the World.

Front Cover -- Demystifying China's Mega Trends -- Also by Chi Lo -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- List of Abbreviations -- Preface -- Chapter 1 A Bird's-eye View on China's Mega Trends -- No More Cheap Yuan -- Urbanisation and Demographics -- Changing Growth Structure -- From Basic Consumption to Luxury -- Shaking up the World's Political Economy -- Back to China -- Chapter 2 Future Growth: More Than a Binary Outcome -- What Do We Know? -- What Don't We Know? -- No Binary Outcome for the Future -- Stagnation, Like Father Like Son -- Not All Bets Are Off -- The Real Danger -- An Identity Crisis -- Is This as Good as It Gets? -- Evidence of Upgrading -- Chapter 3 Demographics: What Else before Hitting the Wall -- China's Demographic Tax -- Consumption to Rise with Ageing -- A Mega Trend of Rising Asset Demand -- The Inflection Point -- Ageing Is Forcing Changes -- China's Unwilling Consumer -- Labour Income Has Shrunk -- A Medium-Term Remedy -- Reverse Migration … -- … Is a Two-edged Sword -- Early Retirement Aggravates the Demographic Tax -- An Incentive Incompatibility Problem -- Chapter 4 The Beginning of the End of Excess Capacity -- The Loss of 'Animal Spirits' -- The Real Estate Super-cycle -- The Structural Problem -- Will Animal Spirits Return? -- China is Still under-Capitalised … -- …but also Suffers from Excess Capacity -- SOE and Excess Capacity -- The Way Out -- The Misunderstanding about Beijing's Power -- The Alignment of Market Forces -- Slaying the Zombies -- Supply-side Reform in Chinese Style -- Reform in the Good Old Days -- The Reality of Xi's Supply-side Reform -- Beijing still Means Business -- An Incentive Problem -- Chapter 5 The 'Debt Bomb' and Deleveraging Dilemma -- China's Debt in Perspective -- A Debt Bomb that won't Explode -- A Different Financial Structure -- The Debt-servicing and Efficiency Problems.

How Might China's Debt Problem End? -- Chinese Banks to Crash? -- Deleveraging and Repricing of Risk Premium -- Corporate Debt and Systemic Risk -- SOE Reform with Mixed Ownership -- The Privatisation Conundrum -- What Signs to Look for? -- Biting the Bullet -- Chapter 6 Capital Account Liberalisation, Realities versus Myths -- Why Do It? -- Liberalisation with Chinese Characteristics -- The Inflow Channels -- The Outflow Channels -- The Two-way Flow Channels -- FTZs and Incentive Compatibility -- Potential Capital Flight -- The Stock Connect Schemes -- Debunking the Myths -- Liberalisation with Chinese Characteristics -- Chapter 7 The Great Emigration of Chinese Capital -- The First Signs of Capital Outflows -- Capital Flight versus Capital Outflows -- Drivers of Overseas Expansion -- The Changing Face of Chinese ODI -- A Different Type of Investor -- Chinese ODI, Friendly or Rogue? -- The Future of China's Capital Outflows and the World -- Crosscurrents -- A Genuine Concern -- Chapter 8 The Belt and Road Strategic Plan -- What Is in It for China? -- The Strategic Importance -- The Politics of the East-West Route -- The North-South Land Route -- The North-South Sea Route -- The Mekong Sub-region -- The Capital Linkage -- The BAR Limits -- The Exaggerated Fears -- Another Misunderstanding -- Chapter 9 Renminbi Gran Turismo -- No Big Deal for the Renminbi Yet -- Renminbi and the Demand for Money Theory -- Internationalisation Stuck in First Gear -- The Push into Europe -- Offshore Renminbi Pool is Key -- Pushing into South Korea -- Fostering a New Monetary Order -- Internationalisation Policy Downgraded -- Signs of a Slowdown in Renminbi Internationalisation -- A Portfolio Investment Implication -- Chapter 10 The Future of the Renminbi -- The Failure of the G3 Currencies -- The Role of the 'Chinese Dream' -- The Future Currency Demand.

Building an Empire for a Global Renminbi -- What Makes a Global Reserve Currency? -- The Other Attributes -- Does the Renminbi Measure Up? -- Forging Ahead -- It is a Matter of Credibility -- The Renminbi's Medium-term Outlook -- Bibliography -- Index.

This new book examines the structural forces behind mega trends in China, refuting conventional wisdom and demystifying media and market hypes about business opportunity and policy. It uses rigorous economic research and evidence to provide a new view of mega trends in China, and expose new trends and problems that will affect China and the World.

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Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2024. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.